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重大事故作为离散随机小概率事件,由于其发生机理与演化规律十分复杂,使重大事故预防与控制存在许多不确定因素。几乎每一次重大事故的发生和处置都构成了一个复杂系统并表现出动力学特征。认真研究总结正反两个方面的经验与教训,深入探讨基于统计学的重大事故孕育、发生、发展、消长和激变的行为与规律,同时采用现代风险管理理念和科学的应急指挥技术方法,对预防重大事故风险和减少事故后果具有重要作用。
As a discrete random small probability event, a major accident has many uncertainties in the prevention and control of major accidents because of its complicated mechanism of evolution and evolution. The occurrence and disposal of almost every major accident constitutes a complex system and exhibits kinetic characteristics. Seriously study and summarize the positive and negative experiences and lessons learned in depth, and discuss in depth the behavior and laws of gestation, occurrence, development, growth and fluctuation based on statistical major accidents. At the same time, adopt modern risk management concepts and scientific emergency command techniques Prevention of major accident risk and reduce the consequences of the accident has an important role.