论文部分内容阅读
Although future sea level rise along the China coast has been projected by various studies for different representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the projections for different warming thresholds, e.g. 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃, have not been done specifically for this region, to the best of our knowledge. We provide such a projection here based on the climate projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The projections are given for 20 tide-gauge stations along the coast of China, Korea, Japan, and Vietnam. Vertical land motion (VLM) is also estimated for stations that have tide gauge records and satellite altimetry both covering the period of 1993-2018. Local land motion (LLM) is then estimated by subtracting the land motion due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) from VLM. Without considering LLM, sea level rise by 2100 at median probability is projected to be 38-49 cm relative to the average sea level over 1986-2005 under warming of 1.5 ℃, and increase to 46-57 cm when the warming threshold is increased to 2.0 ℃. The steric component is the main contributor to this increase in sea level. Inclusion of LLM will not affect the sea level increase between the two warming thresholds, but it will make the local sea level rise by 2100 at certain locations substantially higher (up to 36 cm) or lower (up to 13 cm).