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目的:充分利用已有变量集信息,考察经济增长、卫生投入与健康投资效益之间的动态关联。方法:利用众多变量构成的变量集,提取共同因子并进行向量自回归(VAR)估计。结果:经济增长对健康产出的影响具有两面性,卫生投入增加会带来显著的健康投资收益和经济增长效应,短期健康水平上升有显著的经济增长效应,但长期可能会妨碍经济增长。结论:政府应加大卫生投入,兼顾经济增长带来的健康损耗,并在追求健康投资效益的同时防范“未富先老”风险。
OBJECTIVE: To make full use of the information of the existing variable sets to examine the dynamic correlation between economic growth, health investment and health investment returns. Methods: Utilizing a variable set consisting of a large number of variables, common factors are extracted and vector autoregression (VAR) is estimated. Results: The impact of economic growth on health output has two sides. The increase of health investment will bring significant health investment return and economic growth effect. The rise of short-term health has significant economic growth effect, but it may hinder the economic growth in the long run. Conclusion: The government should increase investment in health care and give consideration to the health loss brought by economic growth. At the same time, it should guard against the risk of “getting old before getting rich” while pursuing the benefits of health investment.