资本流动与亚洲危机

• 作 者: 斯蒂芬·格兰威尔 廖笑非
• 机 构: 澳大利亚储备银行 副总裁
• 出 处: 南洋资料译丛
• 发表日期: 2000年03期
• 关键词: 国际经济政治 帐户 国际资本流动 发动者 资本控制 资本流入 私人债务 外国直接投资 外汇储备 资本输出国

国际资本流动现在成为国际经济政治讨论的中心,显然这已经超过了其平常所拥有的地位。传统上,焦点集中于与储蓄一投资平衡和经常帐户赢亏相对应的有形领域。理论和实际决策都常常假定它们才是行动的“发动者”,而资本流动大体上是一个消极、从属的残余因素。但亚洲危机显示,行动可能正是资本流动本身。资本已经超越了被吸收的能力,就这个意义而言,资本流动过量了。这就是说,资本流动事实上大于经常帐户

International capital flows are now at the center of international economic and political discussions, apparently more than they normally have. Traditionally, the focus has been on tangible areas corresponding to savings-investment balances and current account losses. Both theory and practical decision-making often assume that they are the “initiators” of action, whereas capital flows are largely a passive, subordinate, residual element. But the crisis in Asia shows that what is possible is precisely the flow of capital itself. Capital has gone beyond the ability to be absorbed, in the sense that capital flows are overdone. This means that capital flows are in fact larger than the current account