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采用文献资料法、灰色预测法、数理统计法、比较分析法等,对女子田径运动项目的年度最好成绩的发展进行分析,意在为我国田径运动科学训练与可持续发展、寻求突破口或夺金点提供参考。研究表明:田赛项目、跳跃类项目的成绩发展态势好于投掷类项目;中国女子发展较快的项目有铅球、跳高、跳远、三级跳远和铁饼;世界女子成绩提高的项目有撑杆跳高、三级跳远、链球和跳高;径赛项目、中长跑类项目的成绩发展速度均好于短跨类项目;中国女子持续处于发展态势有10 000 m、5 000 m、4×400 m接力、400 m、400 m栏和200 m。世界女子的10 000 m和400 m成绩处于持续提高阶段;中国女子公路类项目的发展将面临严峻挑战;中国女子全能项目与世界女子全能项目的固有差距依然较大。预测在未来几年间中国女子在20 km竞走、铁饼、10 000 m、马拉松等项目具有争金夺银的实力。
By means of literature, gray prediction, mathematical statistics and comparative analysis, this paper analyzes the development of the best results of the track and field athletics in the year, aiming to find a breakthrough or scientifically for our track and field sports training and sustainable development Gold point for reference. The research shows that the performance of field events and jumping events is better than that of throwing events. The rapid development of Chinese women includes shot put, high jump, long jump, triple jump and discus. The world women's high performance items include pole vault, Long jumps, hammer jumps and high jumps. The performances of track and long-distance running projects were all faster than those of short-span projects. The Chinese women continued to develop momentum with 10 000 m, 5 000 m, 4 400 m, 400 m, 400 m bar and 200 m. The achievements of women's 10 000 m and 400 m in the world are on the rise. The development of China's women's road project will face severe challenges. The inherent gap between the China Women's All-rounder and the World Women's All-rounder is still large. Predict the future of Chinese women in 20 km walking, discus, 10 000 m, marathon and other projects have the strength to win the silver medal.