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黑河是我国一条重要的内陆河,对黑河流域年径流量的变化特征进行深入研究,具有重要的现实意义。文中应用Kendal趋势检验法、R/S分析法、条件概率分析法和M arkov过程基本的理论,对黑河上游莺落峡水文站1945~2000年实测年径流量时序变化的趋势特性及丰枯演化规律进行了研究。结果表明:莺落峡年径流量变化具有如下主要规律:呈增加趋势,但是并不显著;变化存在正的持续性,预计进入21世纪后将继续呈微弱增加趋势;无论何种长度的连续年数,都是连枯的概率最大、连平的概率次之,连丰的概率最小;径流枯水状态的自保守性最强,平水状态的自保守性次之,丰水状态的自保守性最弱;无论处于何种初始状态,径流向枯水状态转移的概率最大,向平水状态转移的概率次之,向丰水状态转移的概率最小。在径流的长期演化过程中,枯水状态的出现机会占有优势,平水状态和枯水状态的出现机会相同。
Heihe River is an important inland river in China. It has important practical significance to study the changing characteristics of annual runoff in Heihe River Basin. In this paper, by using Kendal trend test, R / S analysis, conditional probability analysis and the basic theory of M arkov process, the trend characteristics of the annual variation of annual runoff in Yingluoxia Hydrological Station in the upper Heihe River from 1945 to 2000 are analyzed, The law was studied. The results showed that the annual runoff variation of the Yingluoxia Gorge had the following main rules: increasing trend, but not significant; positive persistence of the change, and it is expected to continue to show a slight increase trend after entering the 21st century. No matter what the continuous years , The probability of evenness is the highest, the probability of evenness is the second, the probability of even abundance is the smallest, the self-conservativeness of runoff is the strongest, followed by the self-conservation of flat water, and the self-conservative of abundance Weak; no matter in what kind of initial state, the probability of runoff to dry flow is the highest, the probability of moving to flat water is second, and the probability of wet to dry is the lowest. During the long-term evolution of runoff, the opportunities for the presence of low water status have an advantage, and the opportunities for flat water status and low water status are the same.