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在过去的 30年中 ,石油工业创造了许多有关勘探开发项目的风险评估方法。然而目前仍然有一些人对这些方法的实用性提出质疑。本文作者在过去的几年中积累了许多经验 ,从而对风险评估过程进行了修正和改进。为了确保风险评估的成功 ,作者特此建议如下 :①为了避免各种风险评估方法的误用 ,必须编写书面指南 ,这些指南应该形成系统文件 ,并传达给参与风险评估的每一个人 ,而且对这些指南应定期修正 ;②确保评估过程的一致性 ,从而避免由于对评估方法缺少周密考虑而造成误解和偏见 ;③必须对技术人员和管理人员进行风险评估培训 ;④风险评估的软件必须有以下特点 :标准化、易于使用并且能够适应不断变化的技术条件 ;⑤必须充分理解各种变量之间的相互依存关系 ;⑥风险评估方法必须具有适配性 ,从而使新技术 ,如地震直接烃类显示器技术 ,能够与其兼容 ;⑦能够正确理解并实时跟踪风险项目的实际结果 ,从而对风险评估方法进行修正和改进
Over the past 30 years, the oil industry has created many risk assessment methods for exploration and development projects. However, there are still some people who question the practicability of these methods. The author of this article has accumulated a lot of experience in the past few years, so as to revise and improve the risk assessment process. In order to ensure the success of the risk assessment, the authors hereby suggest the following: ① In order to avoid misuse of various risk assessment methods, written guidelines must be prepared that should be systematically developed and communicated to everyone involved in the risk assessment, Guidelines should be regularly revised; ② to ensure consistency of the assessment process to avoid misunderstandings and prejudices due to lack of careful consideration of assessment methods; ③ to train technicians and managers in risk assessment; ④ risk assessment software must have the following characteristics : Standardized, easy to use and able to adapt to changing technological conditions; ⑤ The interdependencies of various variables must be fully understood; ⑥ The risk assessment method must be adaptable so that new technologies, such as Seismic Direct Hydrocarbon Display Technology , Can be compatible with them; ⑦ correct understanding and real-time tracking of the actual results of risk projects, and thus risk assessment methods to amend and improve