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基于转轨时期“市场成长”背景,将我国的经济周期分为体制性波动和市场性波动两个方面。进一步,根据改进的Koren和Tenreyro分解方法将我国的地区经济周期分为体制性波动、市场性波动和其他波动三个方面。实证研究结果表明:地区经济周期呈现出市场性波动和其他波动不断增强,体制性波动不断减弱的长期趋势;东部地区的市场性波动和其他波动要显著大于中西部地区的市场性波动,中西部地区的体制性波动要显著大于东部地区的体制性波动。进一步的研究结果表明市场化程度是我国地区经济周期差异化的重要原因,而稳步的区域市场化推进策略,培育完善、健全的全国统一市场机制是实现我国经济周期“高位收敛”的必由之路。
Based on the background of “transition” and “market growth”, this paper divides the economic cycle of our country into two parts: systemic volatility and market volatility. Furthermore, according to the improved Koren and Tenreyro decomposition method, the regional economic cycle of our country is divided into three aspects: institutional volatility, market volatility and other volatility. The empirical results show that: the regional economic cycle shows the long-term trend of market volatility and other rising volatility and institutional weakening; the market volatility and other fluctuations in the eastern region are significantly greater than the market volatility in the central and western regions; Regional institutional fluctuations are significantly greater than the systemic fluctuations in the eastern region. Further research shows that the degree of marketization is an important reason for the differentiation of regional economic cycles in our country. The steady promotion of regional marketization strategies and the development of a sound and sound national unified market mechanism are the only ways to achieve “high convergence” in China’s economic cycle. .