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本文在对传统通货膨胀研究的观点进行梳理和评价的基础上,通过建立VAR模型进行计量研究,发现传统的分析方法对当前物价上涨的解释已经有所不足,价格形成机制呈现了一些新的特点:以房地产为主的资产价格上涨与通胀预期之间形成了新的恶性循环;农产品“资本化”的倾向不断强化;部门之间成本增速与效率增速的错配进一步加剧了农产品价格上涨的压力。在此基础上本文给出了相应的政策建议。
Based on the review and appraisal of the traditional inflation research, through the establishment of VAR model to study the econometrics, we find that the traditional analytical methods have some shortcomings in explaining the current price inflation and the price formation mechanism presents some new features : Real estate-based asset prices and inflation expectations between the formation of a new vicious circle; agricultural products “capitalization ” tend to be strengthened; the mismatch between the cost of growth and efficiency of the sector to further aggravate the agricultural products The pressure of price increases. On this basis, this article gives the corresponding policy recommendations.