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去年年中以来,国际市场原油价格持续上扬,今年更是形成了几次高峰,屡屡刷新海湾战争以来的最高纪录。9月20日,美国西德克萨斯中质油(WTI,美国的一种原油)价格突破38美元/桶,而两年前油价曾跌至10美元/桶!在过去的10年里,我们面对的主要是长期低迷的油价,自然将战略重点集中到了“低油价下的发展”上。石油输出国组织(欧佩克,OPEC)成员国多次限产保价的失败以及国际上大石油公司的频繁购并和重组,更使人们普遍感到“石油已供过于求”,“石油时代已经结束”,逐渐淡化了石油作为一种战略物资的性质和地位。然而,正当人们满怀激情迎接新世纪到来之时,一路飙升的油价却毫不留情地泼下一盆冷水。的确,我们需要做一次“高油价下的冷思考”……
Since the middle of last year, the price of crude oil in the international market has continued to rise. This year it has even taken the shape of several peaks and the highest record since the Gulf War was frequently refreshed. On September 20, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI, a U.S. crude oil) exceeded US $ 38 / barrel and the price of oil dropped to US $ 10 / barrel two years ago. Over the past 10 years, The main long-term downturn we face is oil prices, which naturally focus our strategy on “the development under low oil prices.” The failure of many OPEC member countries to limit their production prices and the frequent mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations of large international oil companies have made people generally feel that “oil has been oversupplied” and “the oil era is over.” The nature and status of petroleum as a strategic commodity. However, just as people are embracing the passion to greet the new century, soaring oil prices have mercilessly poured a pot of cold water. Indeed, we need to do a “cold thinking at high oil prices” ......