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Amid economic woes at home and abroad, Chinese growth still hit a robust 7.8 percent in 2012, even though it’s the country’s slowest rate since 1999.
After dipping to a seven-quarter low of 7.4 percent in the third quarter of 2012, the economy has shown signs of stability while GDP growth rebounded to 7.9 percent in the last quarter, said Ma Jiantang, Commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) at a press conference on January 18.
“We’ve also made new progress in economic restructuring,” Ma said.
Among the 51.93 trillion yuan ($8.36 trillion) of the GDP in 2012, the service sector experienced a rise, its added value contributing 44.6 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous year.
While the export engine lost steam due to anemic demand on the global market, domestic consumption contributed 51.8 percent to China’s economic growth in 2012, with investment adding 50.4 percent, and exports -2.2 percent.
In addition, achievements were made in energy saving and emission reduction. Energy consumption per unit of the GDP dropped by 3.6 percent in 2012, compared with 2011’s 2 percent. Natural gas, hydropower, wind and nuclear power accounted for 14.5 percent of total energy use, 1.5 percentage points higher than the proportion in 2011, according to Ma.
The Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2012 prioritized quality and efficiency of growth over its speed for the first time. The slowing growth rate and changes in growth patterns during 2012 indicate the country’s economy is heading in this direction.
New growth engine
As exports received a heavy blow from a sluggish global economy, domestic consumption has taken the baton to become a new lifesaver for a slowing economy.
Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 20.72 trillion yuan ($3.33 trillion) in 2012, increasing 12.1 percent compared with 2011.
Chinese purchasing power was on full display in 2012, illustrating the potential for in- creased domestic consumption as the country attempts to shift its economy away from a reliance on investment and manufactured exports.
During the 2012 Golden Week holiday, which ran from September 30 to October 7, sales revenue for the retail and catering sectors totaled 800.6 billion yuan ($127.3 billion), up 15 percent year on year, and a total of 425 million Chinese traveled during the period, up 40.9 percent, resulting in 210.5 billion yuan ($33.47 billion) for the tourism industry, according to official figures. November 11, dubbed Singles Day, is a time when millions of Chinese head online to take advantage of huge retail discounts.
Last year’s Singles Day saw over 213 million Internet users swarm Taobao and Tmall, customer-to-customer and business-tocustomer platforms operated by the Hangzhoubased Alibaba Group, for its 24-hour 50-percentoff carnival. Together the sites raked in a record 19.1 billion yuan ($3.07 billion), up 260 percent year on year. Other major e-commerce players all reaped record-breaking profits, which marked the biggest e-commerce sales day on record.
More Chinese opened their wallets to spend simply because they have more money to spend.
The per-capita disposable income of China’s urbanites increased 9.6 percent in 2012 to 24,565 yuan ($3,953), while per-capita net income of farmers was 7,917 yuan ($1,274), up 10.7 percent, said the NBS.
Growth in consumption was also due to government incentives.
The Chinese Government in August 2012 decided to lift highway tolls on roads and bridges nationwide for passenger vehicles with seven seats or less during the four major Chinese holidays—the Spring Festival, Tomb Sweeping Day, May Day and the National Day.
In May 2012, the State Council earmarked 36.3 billion yuan ($5.78 billion) to encourage consumption by offering subsidies for energysaving household appliances, efficient lighting products, greener vehicles and efficient electrical machines. Industry insiders predict that consumers will spend over 450 billion yuan($71.6 billion) as a result.
A total of 79.97 million units of home appliances were sold under China’s rural subsidy program in 2012, up 22.6 percent from one year earlier. The sales volume amounted to 214.5 billion yuan ($34.51 billion), increasing 18.8 percent, said the Ministry of Commerce.
The subsidy program, which was started nationwide in 2009 and will continue until January 2013, is part of the government’s efforts to stimulate rural consumption. Under the program, farmers can receive subsidies equal to 13 percent of the price of the home appliances they buy.
Furthermore, money collected from personal income tax dropped 8 percent in 2012, while the individual business income tax declined 12.5 percent during the period, according to the State Administration of Taxation.
The government has stepped up tax reduction efforts over recent years in a bid to buoy the economy. In 2011, it raised the income tax exemption threshold for wage-earners and those owning individual businesses. “China’s growth opportunities have changed. Domestic consumption has replaced external demand to become a new means of economic growth,” said Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications.
“Alongside the fast development of percapita GDP, urbanization and the country’s central and western regions, a new window has been opened for China’s economic growth.”
To unleash the potential of domestic consumption, the country should improve income distribution and its social security system, which would ease the effect of sluggish exports on China’s economy, said Lian.
“China should make further reforms on its income distribution system to enhance the proportion of residents’ income against national income,” said Li Wei, Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, at the Forum on China’s Economic Outlook held in Beijing on December 29, 2012.
“This will lead to an increase in the purchasing power of the general public, especially among the middle- and low-income groups,”
Also, the government should establish a better social security system that covers both rural and urban areas, to make people feel more secure about spending, said Li.
Dim trade outlook
China’s exports and imports totaled $3.87 trillion in 2012, up 6.2 percent, according to the General Administration of Customs (GAC).
The growth rate slowed sharply from the 22.5-percent rise registered in 2011 and also missed the government’s 10-percent target set for 2012.
“Although this number missed the government’s target, China’s foreign trade performance still tops the world and is the best among all economies in the world,” said Zheng Yuesheng, spokesman of the GAC.
“During the first 10 months of 2012, Japan’s imports and exports only expanded 1.1 percent, the EU’s trade volume shrank 2.12 percent and that of the United States rose by only 4.2 percent. China’s robust 6.2-percent increase is a hard-earned result and it has marked progress in the quality, structure and efficiency,” said Zheng.
The slowdown of foreign trade growth is a result of sluggish external demand, rising production costs at home and increasing trade protectionism in other countries, Zheng said.
Four years after the onset of the global financial crisis, the world economy remains fragile and growth in high-income countries is weak, says the World Bank in the newly released Global Economic Prospects report. “The economic recovery remains fragile and uncertain, clouding the prospect for rapid improvement and a return to more robust economic growth,” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim.
The demographic dividends and the gains of China’s entry to the WTO have been watered down, said Liu Ligang, an economist at ANZ National Bank Ltd. In the long run, foreign trade will no longer pump as much steam into the country’s economic growth as it used to.
“Among the world’s major economies, Chinese exports were the most targeted by trade protectionism. Emerging economies are also increasingly launching trade investigations against China, while the number of targeted industries is rising,” said Zheng. Chinese exporters were targeted by 72 trade investigations in 2012.
December’s exports rose by a seven-month high of 14.1 percent and imports increased by a six-month high of 6 percent, both higher than market expectations.
But the rebound in December was a result of a lower comparative base from 2011 and improving orders following holiday shopping seasons in foreign countries, said Liu Junyu, an analyst at China Merchants Bank. The trade out- look for the first half of 2013 will remain dim, he said.
Risks ahead
Inflation, which used to be an acute headache for the Chinese economy, was within government control in 2012. However, long-term inflationary pressure still exists. Monetary policies must be rolled out with full caution to avert the re-ignition of a price spiral.
The consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, rose 2.6 percent in 2012, well below the government’s annual target of 4 percent, said the NBS.
Inflation saw a moderate rebound in recent months due to surging food prices, which was the result of a 28-year-record cold winter.
Wang Jun, an expert with the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said that China will face greater inflationary pressure in 2013 than in 2012.
“Inflation is likely to rise in the coming months as a result of rising food prices and higher labor and land costs, the quantitative easing measures in foreign countries and stabilizing domestic economic growth,” Wang told Xinhua News Agency.
“Recently, lots of risks were exposed in China’s trust and money management market. Also, with the outcome of the fourth round of quantitative easing in the United States and rampant liquidity in the world, China still faces lots of inflationary pressure,” said Guo Tianyong, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics.
The government should stay alert against inflation, but hyperinflation in 2013 is unlikely to occur, Wang said. He predicts the CPI will stay 3-4 percent in 2013.
In order to prop up growth, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio twice in 2012 and also lowered its benchmark interest rates twice over the course of the year.
“The government should continue to keep a prudent monetary policy in 2013, and adopt a more proactive fiscal policy and extend tax cuts to stabilize economic growth,” Wang said.
Overcapacity is another challenge, a persistent situation worsened by dwindling foreign orders, according to Lian.
“Continuous sluggish economic recovery in developed countries suppressed China’s exports, adding to overcapacity in the country,”said Lian.
After dipping to a seven-quarter low of 7.4 percent in the third quarter of 2012, the economy has shown signs of stability while GDP growth rebounded to 7.9 percent in the last quarter, said Ma Jiantang, Commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) at a press conference on January 18.
“We’ve also made new progress in economic restructuring,” Ma said.
Among the 51.93 trillion yuan ($8.36 trillion) of the GDP in 2012, the service sector experienced a rise, its added value contributing 44.6 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous year.
While the export engine lost steam due to anemic demand on the global market, domestic consumption contributed 51.8 percent to China’s economic growth in 2012, with investment adding 50.4 percent, and exports -2.2 percent.
In addition, achievements were made in energy saving and emission reduction. Energy consumption per unit of the GDP dropped by 3.6 percent in 2012, compared with 2011’s 2 percent. Natural gas, hydropower, wind and nuclear power accounted for 14.5 percent of total energy use, 1.5 percentage points higher than the proportion in 2011, according to Ma.
The Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2012 prioritized quality and efficiency of growth over its speed for the first time. The slowing growth rate and changes in growth patterns during 2012 indicate the country’s economy is heading in this direction.
New growth engine
As exports received a heavy blow from a sluggish global economy, domestic consumption has taken the baton to become a new lifesaver for a slowing economy.
Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 20.72 trillion yuan ($3.33 trillion) in 2012, increasing 12.1 percent compared with 2011.
Chinese purchasing power was on full display in 2012, illustrating the potential for in- creased domestic consumption as the country attempts to shift its economy away from a reliance on investment and manufactured exports.
During the 2012 Golden Week holiday, which ran from September 30 to October 7, sales revenue for the retail and catering sectors totaled 800.6 billion yuan ($127.3 billion), up 15 percent year on year, and a total of 425 million Chinese traveled during the period, up 40.9 percent, resulting in 210.5 billion yuan ($33.47 billion) for the tourism industry, according to official figures. November 11, dubbed Singles Day, is a time when millions of Chinese head online to take advantage of huge retail discounts.
Last year’s Singles Day saw over 213 million Internet users swarm Taobao and Tmall, customer-to-customer and business-tocustomer platforms operated by the Hangzhoubased Alibaba Group, for its 24-hour 50-percentoff carnival. Together the sites raked in a record 19.1 billion yuan ($3.07 billion), up 260 percent year on year. Other major e-commerce players all reaped record-breaking profits, which marked the biggest e-commerce sales day on record.
More Chinese opened their wallets to spend simply because they have more money to spend.
The per-capita disposable income of China’s urbanites increased 9.6 percent in 2012 to 24,565 yuan ($3,953), while per-capita net income of farmers was 7,917 yuan ($1,274), up 10.7 percent, said the NBS.
Growth in consumption was also due to government incentives.
The Chinese Government in August 2012 decided to lift highway tolls on roads and bridges nationwide for passenger vehicles with seven seats or less during the four major Chinese holidays—the Spring Festival, Tomb Sweeping Day, May Day and the National Day.
In May 2012, the State Council earmarked 36.3 billion yuan ($5.78 billion) to encourage consumption by offering subsidies for energysaving household appliances, efficient lighting products, greener vehicles and efficient electrical machines. Industry insiders predict that consumers will spend over 450 billion yuan($71.6 billion) as a result.
A total of 79.97 million units of home appliances were sold under China’s rural subsidy program in 2012, up 22.6 percent from one year earlier. The sales volume amounted to 214.5 billion yuan ($34.51 billion), increasing 18.8 percent, said the Ministry of Commerce.
The subsidy program, which was started nationwide in 2009 and will continue until January 2013, is part of the government’s efforts to stimulate rural consumption. Under the program, farmers can receive subsidies equal to 13 percent of the price of the home appliances they buy.
Furthermore, money collected from personal income tax dropped 8 percent in 2012, while the individual business income tax declined 12.5 percent during the period, according to the State Administration of Taxation.
The government has stepped up tax reduction efforts over recent years in a bid to buoy the economy. In 2011, it raised the income tax exemption threshold for wage-earners and those owning individual businesses. “China’s growth opportunities have changed. Domestic consumption has replaced external demand to become a new means of economic growth,” said Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications.
“Alongside the fast development of percapita GDP, urbanization and the country’s central and western regions, a new window has been opened for China’s economic growth.”
To unleash the potential of domestic consumption, the country should improve income distribution and its social security system, which would ease the effect of sluggish exports on China’s economy, said Lian.
“China should make further reforms on its income distribution system to enhance the proportion of residents’ income against national income,” said Li Wei, Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, at the Forum on China’s Economic Outlook held in Beijing on December 29, 2012.
“This will lead to an increase in the purchasing power of the general public, especially among the middle- and low-income groups,”
Also, the government should establish a better social security system that covers both rural and urban areas, to make people feel more secure about spending, said Li.
Dim trade outlook
China’s exports and imports totaled $3.87 trillion in 2012, up 6.2 percent, according to the General Administration of Customs (GAC).
The growth rate slowed sharply from the 22.5-percent rise registered in 2011 and also missed the government’s 10-percent target set for 2012.
“Although this number missed the government’s target, China’s foreign trade performance still tops the world and is the best among all economies in the world,” said Zheng Yuesheng, spokesman of the GAC.
“During the first 10 months of 2012, Japan’s imports and exports only expanded 1.1 percent, the EU’s trade volume shrank 2.12 percent and that of the United States rose by only 4.2 percent. China’s robust 6.2-percent increase is a hard-earned result and it has marked progress in the quality, structure and efficiency,” said Zheng.
The slowdown of foreign trade growth is a result of sluggish external demand, rising production costs at home and increasing trade protectionism in other countries, Zheng said.
Four years after the onset of the global financial crisis, the world economy remains fragile and growth in high-income countries is weak, says the World Bank in the newly released Global Economic Prospects report. “The economic recovery remains fragile and uncertain, clouding the prospect for rapid improvement and a return to more robust economic growth,” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim.
The demographic dividends and the gains of China’s entry to the WTO have been watered down, said Liu Ligang, an economist at ANZ National Bank Ltd. In the long run, foreign trade will no longer pump as much steam into the country’s economic growth as it used to.
“Among the world’s major economies, Chinese exports were the most targeted by trade protectionism. Emerging economies are also increasingly launching trade investigations against China, while the number of targeted industries is rising,” said Zheng. Chinese exporters were targeted by 72 trade investigations in 2012.
December’s exports rose by a seven-month high of 14.1 percent and imports increased by a six-month high of 6 percent, both higher than market expectations.
But the rebound in December was a result of a lower comparative base from 2011 and improving orders following holiday shopping seasons in foreign countries, said Liu Junyu, an analyst at China Merchants Bank. The trade out- look for the first half of 2013 will remain dim, he said.
Risks ahead
Inflation, which used to be an acute headache for the Chinese economy, was within government control in 2012. However, long-term inflationary pressure still exists. Monetary policies must be rolled out with full caution to avert the re-ignition of a price spiral.
The consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, rose 2.6 percent in 2012, well below the government’s annual target of 4 percent, said the NBS.
Inflation saw a moderate rebound in recent months due to surging food prices, which was the result of a 28-year-record cold winter.
Wang Jun, an expert with the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said that China will face greater inflationary pressure in 2013 than in 2012.
“Inflation is likely to rise in the coming months as a result of rising food prices and higher labor and land costs, the quantitative easing measures in foreign countries and stabilizing domestic economic growth,” Wang told Xinhua News Agency.
“Recently, lots of risks were exposed in China’s trust and money management market. Also, with the outcome of the fourth round of quantitative easing in the United States and rampant liquidity in the world, China still faces lots of inflationary pressure,” said Guo Tianyong, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics.
The government should stay alert against inflation, but hyperinflation in 2013 is unlikely to occur, Wang said. He predicts the CPI will stay 3-4 percent in 2013.
In order to prop up growth, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio twice in 2012 and also lowered its benchmark interest rates twice over the course of the year.
“The government should continue to keep a prudent monetary policy in 2013, and adopt a more proactive fiscal policy and extend tax cuts to stabilize economic growth,” Wang said.
Overcapacity is another challenge, a persistent situation worsened by dwindling foreign orders, according to Lian.
“Continuous sluggish economic recovery in developed countries suppressed China’s exports, adding to overcapacity in the country,”said Lian.