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目的利用网络规模叠加法估计北京在校大学生中毒品使用人群规模,为探讨在高校大学生中开展毒品预防教育提供参考依据。方法采用多阶段整群随机抽样的方法在高校开展大学生问卷调查,利用网络规模叠加法计算大学生的社交网络规模、利用调查对象对待事件人群的不同态度对其进行校正,在此基础上对大学生中毒品使用人群规模进行估计和校正。结果共调查2 005人,其中有效问卷1 776份,剔除1个已知人群和社交网络规模的异常值后,最终分析问卷1 761份。北京市大学生平均社交网络规模为97人。大学生毒品使用人群规模为3 447人,占在校大学生的0.42%。结论采用网络规模叠加法,通过随机抽样调查对大学生吸毒人群规模进行估计是可信的,但需对结果进行校正。
Objective To estimate the population of drug users in Beijing undergraduates using the method of network size overlay to provide reference for carrying out drug prevention education among college students. Methods A multistage cluster random sampling method was used to carry out a survey of college students in colleges and universities. The network scale was used to calculate the social network scale of college students, and the survey participants were used to correct the different attitudes of the event crowd. Based on this, Drug use crowd size to estimate and correct. Results A total of 2 005 people were surveyed, including 1 776 effective questionnaires. After removing the anomalous values of a known population and social network scale, 1 761 questionnaires were finally analyzed. The average social network size of college students in Beijing is 97. The population of college drug users is 3 447, accounting for 0.42% of college students. Conclusion Using the method of network size superposition, it is credible to estimate the size of college drug addicts through random sampling, but the results need to be corrected.