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国际原油价格的持续上涨,极大的影响了世界经济。众多的专家学者,市场分析人士在进行市场研判、分析原油价格走势时均忽略了一个根本问题:美元的持续贬值。正是因为美国政府的弱势美元政策,导致了此次原油价格的持续上涨。在仔细分析汇率变化,充分考虑了汇率对期货市场影响的时滞效应后,可以看出如今每桶35至40美元的原油价格仅相当于2000年每桶20美元左右的价格。正是因为忽略了或者是根本未考虑到这一因素,致使中航油折戟;正是因为这一因素,日本钢铁企业容忍了铁矿石71%的涨幅;也正是因为这一因素,国际金价以及有色金属价格均大幅上涨,其涨幅让人瞠目结舌。油价上涨的原因错综复杂,在我们重新审视油价时,必须充分考虑到国际汇率的影响,考虑到国际政治格局。如若不然,我们就不能正确地定位油价,就不会有正确的判断,也就不能采取正确的策略。如若这样,中航油事件仍将重演,中国国家物资储备调节中心的伦敦期铜豪赌也仍将重演。
The continuous rise of international crude oil prices has greatly affected the world economy. Many experts and scholars, market analysts in the market research, analyze the trend of crude oil prices have overlooked a fundamental problem: the continuous depreciation of the dollar. It is because of the U.S. government’s weak dollar policy that led to a sustained rise in the price of crude oil. After carefully analyzing the exchange rate changes and fully considering the lag effect of the exchange rate on the futures market, we can see that the crude oil price between 35 and 40 U.S. dollars a barrel today is only equivalent to about 20 U.S. dollars a barrel in 2000. It is because of neglect or simply did not take into account this factor, resulting in cv fuel halved; it is precisely because of this factor, Japan’s iron and steel enterprises to tolerate a 71% increase in iron ore; it is precisely because of this factor, the International Gold and non-ferrous metal prices have risen sharply, the increase is staggering. The reasons for rising oil prices are complicated. When we re-examine the oil prices, we must fully consider the impact of international exchange rates and take into account the international political pattern. If not, we will not be able to properly locate the oil price, we will not have the correct judgment and we will not be able to adopt the correct strategy. If so, CAO oil events will continue to repeat itself, the Chinese National Materials Reserve Regulation Center’s London Copper gamble will still be repeated.