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目的探索根据气温、降雨等气象资料预测白纹伊蚊种群密度的方法。方法寻找气温、降雨量等气象参数与白纹伊蚊幼虫种群密度指数之间的关系,采用SPSS软件对其进行分析并建立回归方程。根据回归方程推算白纹伊蚊种群密度并与实际监测数据进行比较,验证其准确性。结果根据月均气温及降水量推算的蚊虫密度值与实际监测数据十分接近。结论根据月平均气温和月降水量可以较为准确地预测白纹伊蚊幼虫密度,从而为登革热等虫媒传染病疫情的预警提供参考依据。
Objective To explore a method to predict Aedes albopictus population density based on meteorological data such as temperature and rainfall. Methods The relationship between meteorological parameters, such as temperature and rainfall, and population density index of Aedes albopictus larvae was investigated. The regression equation was established by using SPSS software. According to the regression equation, Aedes albopictus population density was calculated and compared with the actual monitoring data to verify its accuracy. Results According to the monthly average temperature and precipitation estimated mosquito density values and the actual monitoring data are very close. Conclusion According to the monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation, the density of Aedes albopictus larvae can be more accurately predicted, which will provide a reference for early warning of the epidemic situation of Arbovirus such as dengue fever.