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新型流感病毒周期性出现并通过易感人群迅速传播,可造成全球范围内的流感流行或暴发。20世纪曾有过三次暴发流行:首次也是最具毁灭性的一次流行是1918～1919年间的“西班牙流感”(A/H1N1)的暴发流行;据估计,此次流行造成全球约2000万～5000万人或更多的人死亡,且年青人的死亡率异常高。1957年的“亚洲流感”(A/H2N2)和1968年的“香港流感”(A/H3N2)导致的死亡率稍低(只有老年人和慢性疾病患者死亡率较高),但两次流感暴发却造成相当高的发病率、社会动荡和经济损失。基于历史事实以及当前对生物学、生态学与流感流行病学的了解,有理由推断将会发生流感暴发流行。野生水栖鸟类是A型流感病毒的各种亚型的大“贮备库”,因此流感病毒不可能被根除。在人口密度较高并以农业为主的社会(如中国)中,具备一定的引致疾病暴发流行的病毒突现和传播的条件。目前,人们还无法预测下一次的暴发流行何时来临,且疾病暴发流行的严重程度也是未知的。因此,应预先在疾病暴发流行前制定突发事件的应急处理计划,而这些计划必须具有充分的灵活性以应对不同的疾病。
New influenza viruses occur cyclically and spread rapidly through susceptible populations, causing pandemic or outbreaks worldwide. There were three outbreaks in the twentieth century: the first and most devastating epidemic was the outbreak of “Spanish flu” (A / H1N1) between 1918 and 1919; it was estimated that the epidemic caused about 20 to 5,000 Ten thousand or more people have died, and young people have unusually high mortality rates. The slightly lower death rates (A / HN2) in 1957 and A / H3N2 in 1968 (with higher rates of mortality in elderly and chronic patients), but two outbreaks of influenza It has caused rather high morbidity, social unrest and economic losses. Based on historical facts and current understandings of biology, ecology and influenza epidemiology, it is reasonable to assume that a flu outbreak will occur. Wild aquatic birds are large “stockpiles” of various subtypes of influenza A viruses, so influenza viruses can not be eradicated. In highly populated and predominantly agrarian societies (such as China), there is a certain condition for the emergence and spread of the virus that has led to the outbreak of the disease. At the moment, one can not predict when the next outbreak will come and the severity of the outbreak is unknown. Therefore, prior to the outbreak of the outbreak should be prepared to deal with emergency plans, and these plans must be fully flexible to deal with different diseases.