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经济增长的终极源泉是什么?地理、文化、人力资本还是制度?“都很重要,但都是内生的(包括地理,比如苏伊士运河)。”经济学家会这么回答。的确,最近20年的跨国面板计量史学,各路经济学家集谋篇布局之匠心、计量方法之机巧、数据挖掘之苦功,成功证明了:(1)控制了其他所有因素之后,因素x显著;(2)通过工具变量、历史自然试验、DID、regression discontinuity排除内生性之后,因素x对经济增长有独立影响;(3)作为(2)的推论,history matters:某个外生随机历史事件可能通过路径依赖永久性地影响经济增长。随着大部分好题材好故事被开垦殆尽,学者们就everything matters and
What are the ultimate sources of economic growth? Geography, culture, human capital, or institutions? “Both are important, but they are all endogenous (including geography, such as the Suez Canal).” Economists would say so. Indeed, in the past 20 years, transnational panel metrology historians, various economists’ conspiracy theories, ingenuity in measurement methods, and data mining have proved successful: (1) After controlling all the other factors, the factor x is significant ; (2) Factor x has an independent effect on economic growth after removing endogeneity through instrumental variables, historical natural tests, DID, and regression discontinuity; (3) as a corollary of (2), history matters: an exogenous random historical event Economic growth may be permanently affected by path dependence. As the good stories of most good subjects have been cleared up, academics are all matters and