论文部分内容阅读
目的探索山东省安丘市2000-2014年肾综合征出血热(HFRS)发病情况与气象因素的关系。方法收集2000-2014年安丘市HFRS流行病学资料和气象资料,采用Excel 2007软件对数据进行汇总,采用SAS 9.2软件进行相关性、多元线性回归分析。结果年日照时数、年平均风速与HFRS年发病率呈正相关;本月的平均气温、降雨量、平均气压、平均风速、上月平均气温、上2个月平均气温与本月发病率呈负相关,上2个月平均相对湿度、上月日照时数、上月平均气压与本月发病率呈正相关。通过HFRS月发病率与气象因素的相关分析,最终本月日照时数(x2)、上月降雨量(x5)、上2个月平均气温(x8)、上2个月平均相对湿度(x9),与本月发病率(y)建立回归方程:y=0.0191x2-0.014 2x5-0.239 0x8+0.061 5x9,R~2=0.639。结论安丘市HFRS发病与气象因素有关,可用其预测发病数。
Objective To explore the relationship between the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and meteorological factors in Anqiu City, Shandong Province from 2000 to 2014. Methods The epidemiological data and meteorological data of HFRS collected in Anqiu City from 2000 to 2014 were collected. The data were summarized by using Excel 2007 software and the correlation and multiple linear regression analysis were performed by SAS 9.2 software. Results Annual sunshine hours and annual average wind speed were positively correlated with the annual incidence of HFRS. The average temperature, rainfall, mean air pressure, mean wind speed, mean temperature of the previous month, mean temperature of the previous month and mean air temperature for the past two months were negatively correlated with the incidence of HFRS Related, the average relative humidity of 2 months, the sunshine hours last month, the average pressure of last month and this month the incidence was positively correlated. Based on the correlation analysis between monthly incidence of HFRS and meteorological factors, the sunshine duration (x2), the previous month’s rainfall (x5), the average temperature in the past two months (x8), the average relative humidity in the last two months (x9) , And the incidence of the month (y) regression equation: y = 0.0191x2-0.014 2x5-0.239 0x8 +0.061 5x9, R ~ 2 = 0.639. Conclusions The incidence of HFRS in Anqiu City is related to meteorological factors. It can be used to predict the incidence of HFRS.