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本文运用COMPAS模型基于2009～2011的月度数据估计我国对进口的聚氯乙烯征收反倾销税,对聚氯乙烯产业的贸易效应影响。结果表明对该产业征收反倾销税,会使本国聚氯乙烯的价格上升7.5%,产量增加3.1%,产业的收入增加10.4%,就业增加3%,设备的利用率达80.5%,并且我国产品的市场份额也由81%上升到89.7%。但反倾销行为使消费者的福利损失约4.5亿美元,国家的福利损失近4千7百万美元。
This article uses the COMPAS model to estimate the impact of the anti-dumping duties imposed on imported PVC in China on the trade effects of the PVC industry based on monthly data from 2009 to 2011. The results show that the anti-dumping duties levied on the industry, the price of PVC in the country will increase by 7.5%, the output will increase by 3.1%, the revenue of the industry will increase by 10.4%, the employment will increase by 3% and the utilization rate of the equipment will reach 80.5% Market share also rose from 81% to 89.7%. However, anti-dumping actions cost consumers about 450 million U.S. dollars and state welfare losses nearly 47 million U.S. dollars.