论文部分内容阅读
[目的]了解南通市2005—2014年肺癌死亡率的变化趋势及定量估计影响因素,为肺癌的防制提供科学依据。[方法]收集南通市2005—2014年肺癌的死亡数据,分性别和年龄计算肺癌粗死亡率和标化死亡率,采用变化百分比(PC)和年均变化百分比(APC)描述变化趋势,运用差别分解法定量分析肺癌死亡的影响因素。[结果]南通市肺癌平均粗死亡率为53.97/10万,标化死亡率为28.23/10万。2005—2014年,肺癌粗死亡率在男性(APC=3.97%,95%CI:3.0%~4.6%,P<0.001)、女性(APC=4.19%,95%CI:3.2%~5.1%,P<0.001)和全人群(APC=3.98%,95%CI:3.2%~4.5%,P<0.001)中均呈上升的总体趋势;但标化死亡率在男性、女性和全人群中均未见明显的变化趋势。男性、女性和全人群人口结构因素对死亡率的贡献率分别是97.6%、70.9%和84.1%。[结论]南通市2005—2014年肺癌粗死亡率呈上升趋势,人口老龄化是主要影响因素。
[Objective] To understand the trend of lung cancer mortality in Nantong City from 2005 to 2014 and the influencing factors of quantitative estimation, and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of lung cancer. [Methods] The mortality data of lung cancer from 2005 to 2014 in Nantong City were collected. The crude and standard mortality rates of lung cancer were calculated by sex and age. The change percentage (PC) and the annual average percentage of change (APC) were used to describe the change trend. Decomposition method to quantitatively analyze the influential factors of lung cancer death. [Results] The average crude death rate of lung cancer in Nantong City was 53.97 / 100000, and the standardized death rate was 28.23 / 100000. In 2005-2014, the crude mortality rate of lung cancer was significantly higher in men (APC = 3.97%, 95% CI: 3.0% -4.6%, P <0.001) and in women (APC = 4.19%, 95% CI: 3.2% -5.1% <0.001) and the whole population (APC = 3.98%, 95% CI: 3.2% -4.5%, P <0.001). However, the standardized mortality rate was not observed in males, females and the whole population Obvious trend of change. The contribution rates of demographic factors to mortality for men, women and the whole population were 97.6%, 70.9% and 84.1%, respectively. [Conclusion] The crude mortality rate of lung cancer in Nantong increased from 2005 to 2014, and the population aging was the main factor.