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本文基于改进后的经济景气分析系统、宏观经济监测预警信号系统和STR等多种经济计量模型,对2010年的经济形势进行了分析和预测.预计2010年经济增长可能达到10%.1999年以来,物价随景气状况的改变呈现出状态转换的非线性变动特征.CPI从2009年4季度开始进入新一轮物价上涨周期,预计2010年CPI上涨3.2%,出现温和通货膨胀,但从2010年4季度开始物价上涨压力有望逐渐减缓.“,”In this paper, we analyze and forecast the economic situations in 2010 based on the improved business cycle analysis system, macroeconomic moni- toring and early warning system and the STR model. The conclusions show that e- conomic growth has been in the expansion phase of this business cycle since the sec- ond quarter of 2009 and approaches the first peak of minor cycle around March in 2010; The CPI has been in the rising phase of this cycle since the forth quarter of 2009 and the phase will last about one year; The annual CPI is expected to rise by around 3.2 %which is a moderate inflation level.