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本文依据随机权网络(RWN)理论并利用我国当前生产性服务业相关数据构建了一个随机权网络模型,对未来5年(2015年-2020年)反映我国生产性服物业展水平的三大指标:生产性服务业产值、生产性服务业产值占GDP比重以及生产性服务业产值占第三产业产值比重进行了预测。预测结果显示,未来5年我国生产性服务业将处在稳步发展阶段,但与发达国家相比仍有较大差距。通过国际比较,分析了造成这一差距的原因并依据预测结果、结合国外生产性服务业发展经验,给出了有关促进我国生产性服务业发展的政策建议。
This paper constructs a model of random rights network based on the RWN theory and the data of the current producer services in China. It analyzes the three major indicators that reflect the level of China’s producer services industry over the next five years (2015-2020) : The output value of producer services, the share of output value of producer services in GDP and the output value of producer services in the output value of the tertiary industry were predicted. The forecast results show that in the next five years, China’s producer services will be at a steady stage of development, but there is still a big gap compared with developed countries. Through international comparison, this paper analyzes the causes of this gap and gives some policy suggestions on how to promote the development of China’s producer services based on the forecast results and the experience of foreign producer services.