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本文探讨了外汇市场压力、短期国际资本流动及通货膨胀之间的相互关系,采用MS-VAR模型实证分析了上述变量在我国的动态变化关系。结果表明:人民币处于较强升值区制使短期资本流入且通胀上升;转为较强贬值区制则使短期资本大量外流且通胀下降;而人民币转向适度升贬值区制将使短期资本小幅流出且通胀下降。当前将人民币引向适度升贬值区制能够均衡外汇市场压力、短期国际资本流动和通货膨胀三方面的政策考虑,对我国经济较为有利。
This article explores the relationship between the pressure on the foreign exchange market, short-term international capital flows and inflation, and uses the MS-VAR model to empirically analyze the dynamic changes of these variables in China. The results show that the short-term capital inflows and inflation increase due to the strong appreciation of RMB; the large-scale outflow of short-term capital and inflation decline; the shift of RMB to moderate devaluation will make short-term capital outflow and Inflation is down. At present, the introduction of the Renminbi to a moderate rise in devaluation zone system can balance the pressure on the foreign exchange market, short-term international capital flows and inflation in three aspects of policy considerations, which are more favorable to our economy.