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China has a long way to go in the shale gas re- form.
In early August， Wu Xinxiong， director of the State Energy Administration， said in the Conference of Energy Planning for the 13th Five-Year Plan that China was going to improve the output of shale gas and coal bed gas to 30 billion cubic meters respectively by 2020.
However， the set goal about output of shale is only one half of the previous goal set in the 12th Five-Year Plan. Actually， when the goal was put forward at that time， many senior experts told the media that it might be too high to be realized.
The goal of output which is reduced by half to 30 billion cubic meters shows that decision-makers are quickly lowering their expectation for the shale gas output. The change of their ideas might pour cold water onto the current heat of shale gas in China.
Two years ago， the State Energy Administration published the 2011-2015 Development Planning for Shale Gas. At that time， Zheng Yuqing， head of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Department at the State Energy Administration， said that the volume of exploitable shale gas in China reached 25 trillion cubic meters. The annual output was expected to reach 6.5 billion cubic meters by 2015 and the figure was to be improved to 60-100 billion cubic meters by 2020.
However， two years after that， the goal of shale gas output was reduced by half. People have to wonder： how did this happen？
A group of data might reveal the answer： in 2012， the output of shale gas in China hit 25 million cubic meters. In 2013 the figure improved several times but only stayed at 200 million cubic meters. The government set the goal of shale gas output in 2014 at 1.5 billion cubic meters， still far from the 60-billion figure.
“I think the goal of 30 billion cubic meters is a much easier target，” says a shale gas expert working for China National Petroleum Corporation （CNPC）. His company is going to improve the goal of output to 2.6 billion cubic meters.
Presently， 80% of the shale gas resources in China are taken by four state-owned petroleum companies： CNPC， China National Petrochemical Corporation （Sinopec）， China National Offshore Oil Corporation （CNOOC） and Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum （Group） Co.， Ltd （Yangchang Petro-leum）. The first three are the three biggest petroleum enterprises in China while the last one， despite being a provinciallevel state-owned enterprise， is still quite influential in China’s oil sector. These four companies are commonly called “three and a half buckets of oil”. The shale gas industry features high investment， high cost and long investment-return period. According to the statistical data， China had already invested over 15 billion yuan in the exploration of shale gas by the end of April 2014.
China is still quite young as a real player in the shale gas industry. Now it is still in the period of initial exploration. In the 2014 China Energy Summit， Zhao Xianliang， director of the Research Center for Petro- leum & Gas at the Ministry of National Land and Resources， pointed out that the investment of China into shale gas （and other non-conventional gas and oil） is far behind that of the U.S. and Canada. The major oil companies are to be mainly blamed for the insufficient investment.
Zhang Dawei， deputy director of the Research Center for Petroleum & Gas at the Ministry of National Land and Resources， estimated that the 100-billion-cubic-meter shale gas needed the investment of 400-600 billion yuan.
Even though money is not an issue for the four major shale gas companies in China， the high investment and low returns of the shale make it hard to realize the massive industrial production. The price is hardly a feat for the shale gas to compete with the conventional gas in the market and this keeps the shale gas output away from fast increase.
In addition， the low recovery efficiency of shale gas in China is still unable to solve due to the technological deficiency. The recovery ratio of shale gas is usually between 5% and 20%， but the recovery ratio of conventional gas is higher than 60%.
It is known that Sinopec shoulders the biggest part of the goal of increasing the shale gas output to 30 billion cubic meters by 2020.
In recent years， Sinopec and CNPC， the two largest oil companies in China， are contending with each other in the exploration of shale gas. CNPC， which got involved in the shale gas exploration in 2006， was the pioneer of China in this sector. However， it was caught up by Sinopec. Nowadays， CNPC is mainly focusing on two national-level shale gas development areas： one in Changning and Weiyuan， Sichuan and the other one in Zhaotong， Yunnan. Sinopec， in comparison， is concentrating its shale gas force into Fulin， Chongqing.
This March， Sinopec announced that its shale gas field in Fulin had entered the period of large-scale and commercial development earlier than the plan. The output from this field is expected to reach 1.8 billion cubic meters at the end of 2014 and the production capacity is expected to reach 5 billion cubic meters by the end of 2015. Apart from these two companies， “the second batch of enterprises which got the right of exploring shale gas has not made much progress by now，” says the aforementioned expert for CNPC.
The new round of bidding which is said to recruit the third group of enterprises to explore shale gas is still a rumor without any confirmations. A source close to the central government says that it might be the provincial governments to decide which enterprises could be allowed to explore the shale gas.
However， the expert from CNPC says that the new members of exploring shale gas will not change the situation too much. The output will not meet unexpected increase as it will take a lot of time and money in the exploration.
It is widely reported that the central government of China previously planned to take 200-thousand-sqm land from Sichuan in the block of third round of bidding. The part to be taken out accounts for 41% of the entire Sichuan Province. The objections from the Sichuan government， Sinopec and CNPC aborted this plan.
The shale gas is not easy to get in China as it is widely believed that the cost of exploring shale gas in China is four times as much as the one in the U.S.
Chen Weidong， chief researcher at CNOOC classifies the development of shale gas in the U.S. into three procedures： lowering the cost， increasing the size and then realizing the sustainable development.
“The price is the main factor to change the energy structure and the size is the foundation to make the change，” says Deng Yusong， deputy director of Market-oriented Economic Institute at State Council’s Development Research Center. It is not until 2018 can the shale gas industry in China see the progress.
In early August， Wu Xinxiong， director of the State Energy Administration， said in the Conference of Energy Planning for the 13th Five-Year Plan that China was going to improve the output of shale gas and coal bed gas to 30 billion cubic meters respectively by 2020.
However， the set goal about output of shale is only one half of the previous goal set in the 12th Five-Year Plan. Actually， when the goal was put forward at that time， many senior experts told the media that it might be too high to be realized.
The goal of output which is reduced by half to 30 billion cubic meters shows that decision-makers are quickly lowering their expectation for the shale gas output. The change of their ideas might pour cold water onto the current heat of shale gas in China.
Two years ago， the State Energy Administration published the 2011-2015 Development Planning for Shale Gas. At that time， Zheng Yuqing， head of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Department at the State Energy Administration， said that the volume of exploitable shale gas in China reached 25 trillion cubic meters. The annual output was expected to reach 6.5 billion cubic meters by 2015 and the figure was to be improved to 60-100 billion cubic meters by 2020.
However， two years after that， the goal of shale gas output was reduced by half. People have to wonder： how did this happen？
A group of data might reveal the answer： in 2012， the output of shale gas in China hit 25 million cubic meters. In 2013 the figure improved several times but only stayed at 200 million cubic meters. The government set the goal of shale gas output in 2014 at 1.5 billion cubic meters， still far from the 60-billion figure.
“I think the goal of 30 billion cubic meters is a much easier target，” says a shale gas expert working for China National Petroleum Corporation （CNPC）. His company is going to improve the goal of output to 2.6 billion cubic meters.
Presently， 80% of the shale gas resources in China are taken by four state-owned petroleum companies： CNPC， China National Petrochemical Corporation （Sinopec）， China National Offshore Oil Corporation （CNOOC） and Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum （Group） Co.， Ltd （Yangchang Petro-leum）. The first three are the three biggest petroleum enterprises in China while the last one， despite being a provinciallevel state-owned enterprise， is still quite influential in China’s oil sector. These four companies are commonly called “three and a half buckets of oil”. The shale gas industry features high investment， high cost and long investment-return period. According to the statistical data， China had already invested over 15 billion yuan in the exploration of shale gas by the end of April 2014.
China is still quite young as a real player in the shale gas industry. Now it is still in the period of initial exploration. In the 2014 China Energy Summit， Zhao Xianliang， director of the Research Center for Petro- leum & Gas at the Ministry of National Land and Resources， pointed out that the investment of China into shale gas （and other non-conventional gas and oil） is far behind that of the U.S. and Canada. The major oil companies are to be mainly blamed for the insufficient investment.
Zhang Dawei， deputy director of the Research Center for Petroleum & Gas at the Ministry of National Land and Resources， estimated that the 100-billion-cubic-meter shale gas needed the investment of 400-600 billion yuan.
Even though money is not an issue for the four major shale gas companies in China， the high investment and low returns of the shale make it hard to realize the massive industrial production. The price is hardly a feat for the shale gas to compete with the conventional gas in the market and this keeps the shale gas output away from fast increase.
In addition， the low recovery efficiency of shale gas in China is still unable to solve due to the technological deficiency. The recovery ratio of shale gas is usually between 5% and 20%， but the recovery ratio of conventional gas is higher than 60%.
It is known that Sinopec shoulders the biggest part of the goal of increasing the shale gas output to 30 billion cubic meters by 2020.
In recent years， Sinopec and CNPC， the two largest oil companies in China， are contending with each other in the exploration of shale gas. CNPC， which got involved in the shale gas exploration in 2006， was the pioneer of China in this sector. However， it was caught up by Sinopec. Nowadays， CNPC is mainly focusing on two national-level shale gas development areas： one in Changning and Weiyuan， Sichuan and the other one in Zhaotong， Yunnan. Sinopec， in comparison， is concentrating its shale gas force into Fulin， Chongqing.
This March， Sinopec announced that its shale gas field in Fulin had entered the period of large-scale and commercial development earlier than the plan. The output from this field is expected to reach 1.8 billion cubic meters at the end of 2014 and the production capacity is expected to reach 5 billion cubic meters by the end of 2015. Apart from these two companies， “the second batch of enterprises which got the right of exploring shale gas has not made much progress by now，” says the aforementioned expert for CNPC.
The new round of bidding which is said to recruit the third group of enterprises to explore shale gas is still a rumor without any confirmations. A source close to the central government says that it might be the provincial governments to decide which enterprises could be allowed to explore the shale gas.
However， the expert from CNPC says that the new members of exploring shale gas will not change the situation too much. The output will not meet unexpected increase as it will take a lot of time and money in the exploration.
It is widely reported that the central government of China previously planned to take 200-thousand-sqm land from Sichuan in the block of third round of bidding. The part to be taken out accounts for 41% of the entire Sichuan Province. The objections from the Sichuan government， Sinopec and CNPC aborted this plan.
The shale gas is not easy to get in China as it is widely believed that the cost of exploring shale gas in China is four times as much as the one in the U.S.
Chen Weidong， chief researcher at CNOOC classifies the development of shale gas in the U.S. into three procedures： lowering the cost， increasing the size and then realizing the sustainable development.
“The price is the main factor to change the energy structure and the size is the foundation to make the change，” says Deng Yusong， deputy director of Market-oriented Economic Institute at State Council’s Development Research Center. It is not until 2018 can the shale gas industry in China see the progress.