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未来20年(指2011-2030年),中国经济仍将保持高增长,年平均增长率在7%-8%之间,其中2011至2020年为8.0%左右,2020年至2030年为7.0%左右。以2010年为基数,按不变价格计算的中国GDP,到2030年再翻两番;以1978年为基数,2030年的GDP相当于其80倍以上。可以认为,世界上没有任何一个国家能够在52年(指1978-2030年)的时间内,使经济总量增幅达到87倍,这相当于西欧12国在172年(指1820-1992年)GDP增长幅度40倍的两倍之多。2030年中国将成为真正意义上的世界现代经济强国。我们用三种方法(按美元现价计算的汇率法,按美元现价的购买力平价法,按美元不变价格的购买力平价法)预测结果,在2020年之前,中国GDP总量将超过美国,相当于美国的1.0-1.7倍,将终结美国100多年来居世界首位的地位;到2030年,中国GDP总量相当于美国的2.0-2.2倍。此外,中国还将成为世界最大的消费市场,世界最大的现代产业体系,世界500强企业最多的国家,世界最大规模的城市化地区,建成世界最大、最现代化的基础设施体系。中国还处于经济发展的黄金时期。新型工业化、新型城市化、知识信息化、全球经济一体化、基础设施现代化的“五大发动机”一同快速发展、相互作用、相互需求,足以使中国经济继续保持高增长。
In the next 20 years (referring to 2011-2030), China’s economy will maintain its high growth rate with an average annual growth rate of 7% -8%, of which 8.0% in 2011-2020 and 7.0% in 2020-2030, about. With 2010 as the base, China’s GDP at constant prices will quadruple by 2030; by 1978, the GDP of 2030 will be 80 times more. It can be assumed that no country in the world is able to increase its total economic output 87-fold in the 52 years (1978-2030), which is equivalent to the GDP of 172 countries in Western Europe (ie, 1820-1992) Double the growth rate of 40 times. By 2030, China will become a real modern economic power in the world. We use three methods (the exchange rate method based on the current price of the United States, the purchasing power parity method based on the current price of the United States dollar and the purchasing power parity method based on the constant U.S. dollar price). By 2020, the total GDP of China will surpass that of the United States, equivalent to 1.0-1.7 times that of the United States will bring the United States to an unprecedented first place in the world for more than 100 years. By 2030, China’s GDP will amount to 2.0-2.2 times the U.S. total. In addition, China will become the largest consumer market in the world, the largest modern industrial system in the world, the country with the largest number of Fortune 500 companies, and the largest urbanized area in the world, making it the largest and most modern infrastructure system in the world. China is still in the golden age of economic development. The rapid development, interaction and mutual demand of new industrialization, new urbanization, knowledge-based information, global economic integration and infrastructure modernization will enable the Chinese economy to maintain its high growth rate.