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本文对鲜水河地震带和松潘、龙门山地震带未来半年内是否能发生5级以上的地震进行了多因子模糊聚类分析。介绍了应用系统模糊聚类分析方法的具体步骤。根据各单项预报手段预报效能的清理结果,选用了9项地震活动性及前兆手段为指标,分别建立了鲜水河地震带和松潘、龙门山地震带31个时段的半年预报样本。利用这些样本分别对两地震带半年内是否可能发生5级以上地震进行了模糊聚类分析判断,并对其预报效能作了评分。结果表明用模糊聚类分析方法进行综合预报的预报评分值明显高于各单项手段的预报评分值。
In this paper, multi-factor fuzzy cluster analysis is conducted on whether the Xianshuihe seismic belt and Songpan or Longmenshan seismic belt can occur more than 5 earthquakes within the next six months. The concrete steps of fuzzy clustering analysis method of application system are introduced. According to the cleaning results of the forecasting effectiveness of each single forecasting method, nine seismic activity and precursors were selected as indices to establish the semi-annual forecast samples for 31 periods of Xianshuihe seismic belt and Songpan and Longmenshan seismic zones, respectively. Using these samples, the fuzzy clustering analysis and judgment of whether earthquakes of magnitude 5 or above may occur in the two seismogenic belts within six months respectively are carried out, and the prediction efficiency is scored. The results show that the forecast scores of comprehensive forecasting using fuzzy clustering analysis method are obviously higher than those of single methods.