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为了考虑某一给定断层特征地震的影响,提出了地震危险性分析混杂地震复发模型并进行了深入的研究。该模型综合考虑了大地震的更新时间、特征震级模型和中小地震的传统指数-时间及指数-震级模型。研究了重要时间和震级参数的性质。讨论了使用该模型进行地震危险性分析的准确和近似(“首次事件”)的解答.对大多数工程应用而言,近似算法已经足够精确。近似计算可以通过对传统的为泊松模型设计的计算程序作较小的修改得到。本文讨论了用该模型进行地震危险性分析得到的结果和用更复杂的混杂模型,如时间可预测模型和震级可预测模型进行地震危险性分析得到的结果的比较。除非场地和源之间的距离比较小,在大多数情况下,特征地震时间对地震危险性分析结果起主要影响。在记忆复发时间分布且离逝时间长时更是如此。依据上述结果,当时间变化系数取较小的值,并且特征地震震级与复发时间相关性较小时,该模型给出的地震危险性分析结果与更为复杂的非泊松模型给出的结果比较接近。
In order to consider the influence of a given fault of a characteristic earthquake, a seismic hazard analysis of mixed earthquake recurrence model is proposed and conducted in-depth study. The model takes into account the update time of major earthquakes, the model of characteristic magnitude and the traditional indices of small and medium earthquakes - time and index-magnitude model. The properties of important time and magnitude parameters are studied. The exact and approximate (“first incident”) solution to seismic hazard analysis using this model is discussed and the approximation algorithm is accurate enough for most engineering applications. The approximate calculation can be obtained by making minor modifications to the traditional calculation program designed for the Poisson model. This paper discusses the results of seismic hazard analysis using this model and the comparisons of the results obtained with more complex hybrid models such as time-predictable models and magnitude-predictable models for seismic hazard analysis. Unless the distance between site and source is relatively small, in most cases, the characteristic seismic time has a major impact on the results of the seismic hazard analysis. This is especially true when the time to memory recovers and the time elapses. According to the above results, when the time variation coefficient takes a smaller value and the correlation between characteristic earthquake magnitude and recurrence time is small, the results of the seismic hazard analysis given by this model are compared with the results given by the more complex non-Poisson model Close to