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应急决策是受多因素影响的复杂认知行为,决策失误的风险较高。引入Stated Preference调查法,设计船舶溢油应急决策调查问卷,并完成了对上海、天津、宁波、舟山、厦门、大连6个主要海港的240名应急人员的调查。采用Mult-i Logit模型对调查数据进行模型拟合、参数估计和选择概率测算,得到应急人员决策的效用函数。结果表明,应急人员在采取应急计划启动、风险评估、清污方案选择和调整等决策行为时,受溢油量、溢油持续时间、溢油对敏感区的威胁程度等情景因素,以及工作时间和应急经验等个体特征因素的影响。由此探讨了应急人员易发生失误的决策环节,一定程度上掌握了不同特质的应急人员在不同情境下的行为决策规律和特征。
Emergency decision-making is a complex cognitive behavior affected by many factors, the risk of making mistakes is high. The Stated Preference investigation method was introduced to design the survey questionnaire of emergency response to ship oil spill. The survey was conducted on 240 emergency personnel at six major seaports in Shanghai, Tianjin, Ningbo, Zhoushan, Xiamen and Dalian. The Mult-i Logit model was used to fit the survey data, estimate the parameters and choose the probabilistic measure, and get the utility function of emergency personnel decision-making. The results show that when emergency personnel are involved in decision-making such as start-up of emergency plan, risk assessment, selection and adjustment of clean-up plan, the emergency response personnel are affected by scene factors such as oil spill, duration of oil spill, degree of threat of oil spill to sensitive areas and working hours And emergency experience and other individual characteristics of the impact. This paper explores the decision-making process of emergency personnel prone to error, to a certain extent, mastered the rules and characteristics of behavior decisions of emergency personnel of different traits in different situations.