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亚洲经济将在5年内恢复到亚洲金融危机前的水平并进到持续增长。随着各国经济转向以服务业为重点,石油需求增长率与国内生产总值增长率之比逐渐减小,单位产值能耗将减少。所以,从总体看,亚洲石油需求将增加,但是增长率将低于危机之前的水平。在1999～2005年计划新增的360万桶/日的炼油能力当中、估计将有50～60万桶/日推迟到2005年之后建设。1999～2010年南亚和中国柴油供需存在缺口,其他地区总体上是供过于求。亚洲各地区汽油生产能力相对充裕,东亚地区2007年之后将出现供不应求。中国的燃料油缺口将不断增加,由于韩国到2008年将不再有过剩的燃料油,因此,中国需要考虑料进口来源的多样化。2003年或2004年之前亚洲的炼油利润很难高于每桶3美元,此后,假如石油需求保持稳定增长,炼油利润将提高到每桶4美元。
The Asian economy will return to the level before the Asian financial crisis within five years and continue to grow. As the economy shifts to focus on service industries, the ratio of the growth rate of oil demand to the growth rate of GDP will gradually decrease, and the energy consumption per unit of output will decrease. Therefore, on the whole, Asian oil demand will increase, but the growth rate will be lower than before the crisis. Among the planned 3.6 million barrels/day of new oil refining capacity in 1999-2005, an estimated 500-600,000 barrels per day will be postponed until after 2005. From 1999 to 2010, there was a gap between the supply and demand of diesel in South Asia and China, and the supply in other regions was generally oversupply. Gasoline production capacity is relatively abundant in all regions of Asia, and the supply of East Asia will fall short of demand after 2007. China’s fuel oil gap will continue to increase. Since South Korea will no longer have excess fuel oil by 2008, China needs to consider the diversification of raw materials imports. Before 2003 or 2004, the refining profit in Asia was hardly higher than US$3 per barrel. After that, if oil demand kept growing steadily, refining profits would increase to US$4 per barrel.