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社会形势中的不确定性是指国际国内形势中对我国安全与稳定有可能产生严重影响乃至全局性影响的潜在因素。它具有参量增多,内容与形式多样化;变量剧增,引发各种突发事件的概率提高;能见度差,演变过程与趋势不清晰等主要特征。所以,必须运用自然科学方法研究社会形势中的不确定性,努力把握由模糊关系和偶然性造成之不确定性,建立社会形势“安全阀”、“缓冲带”,提高控制有组织犯罪的能力,建立健全社会安全与稳定的预警机制。
Uncertainty in the social situation refers to the potential factors that may have a serious impact on China’s security and stability and even its overall impact in the international and domestic situations. It has the characteristics of more parameters, diversified contents and forms, more frequent variables, higher probability of triggering various emergencies, poor visibility, unclear evolutionary process and trend. Therefore, it is necessary to use natural science methods to study the uncertainty in the social situation, try hard to grasp the uncertainty caused by vague relations and contingencies, establish “safety valves” and “buffer belts” in the social situation and enhance the ability to control organized crime, Establish and improve the early warning mechanism for social security and stability.