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在考虑结构突变的情况下,引入虚拟变量,运用协整模型、误差修正模型对1978—2008年我国城乡居民的消费与收入、利率、不确定性因素间存在的长期均衡与短期均衡关系进行分析与比较。结果表明,长期来看,农村居民的边际消费倾向略高于城镇居民;利率对城乡居民消费的影响分别表现为替代效应与收入效应;不确定性对城镇居民消费的影响大于农村。短期来看,收入的波动对于农村居民的影响程度稍大;利率的波动对农村居民影响表现出明显的收入效应,而对于城镇居民影响不显著。收入不确定性的波动对城乡居民消费无明显影响。
Considering the sudden change of structure, this paper introduces the dummy variables, and uses the cointegration model and the error correction model to analyze the relationship between the long-term equilibrium and the short-term equilibrium between the urban-rural resident’s consumption and income, interest rate and uncertainty in 1978-2008 Compared with. The results show that in the long run, the marginal propensity to consume of rural residents is slightly higher than that of urban residents. The effects of interest rates on urban and rural residents ’consumption are manifested as substitution effects and income effects respectively. Uncertainty affects the urban residents’ consumption more than that of rural residents. In the short run, the fluctuation of income has a slightly greater impact on rural residents; the fluctuation of interest rates shows a significant income effect on rural residents, while the impact on urban residents is insignificant. Fluctuation in income uncertainty has no obvious effect on urban and rural residents’ consumption.