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正确厘清长三角城市群碳排放、能源消费和经济增长之间的关系是制定长三角节能减排政策所面临的重要问题。文章利用2006~2013年长三角16个地级市面板数据,构建面板联立方程模型实证检验了碳排放、能源消费和经济增长之间的关系。结果表明:(1)长三角城市群能源消费与经济增长之间、能源消费与碳排放之间、经济增长与碳排放之间均存在双向因果关系;(2)能源消费是经济增长的决定因素,但随着长三角城市群经济的增长,能源强度有降低的趋势;(3)能源结构中高碳能源消费比重的降低有助于碳减排,更多的碳排放亦会导致更高的能源消费需求;(4)适当的碳减排有助于促进经济增长,同时随着人均GDP的进一步增加,长三角城市群环境污染会由高趋低。
Correctly clarify the relationship between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in the urban agglomeration of the Yangtze River Delta is an important issue facing the formulation of energy conservation and emission reduction policies in the Yangtze River Delta. The paper uses panel data of 16 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2006 to 2013 to set up a panel simultaneous equation model to empirically test the relationship between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth. The results show that: (1) There is a two-way causal relationship between energy consumption and carbon emissions, between economic growth and carbon emissions in the urban agglomeration of the Yangtze River Delta; (2) Energy consumption is the determining factor of economic growth , But with the economic growth of the urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta, the energy intensity tends to decrease. (3) The reduction of the share of high-carbon energy consumption in the energy structure contributes to the reduction of carbon emissions. More carbon emissions will also lead to higher energy Consumer demand; (4) Appropriate carbon emission reduction helps to promote economic growth, meanwhile, with the further increase of per capita GDP, the environmental pollution in urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Delta will turn from high to low.