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目的分析十堰市传染病自动预警信息现状,为完善自动预警信息系统管理工作提供依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法对十堰市传染病预警信息进行分析。结果十堰市2008-2012年传染病自动预警系统累计发出4 822条预警信号,暴发/流行26条,阳性预测值仅为0.54%。现场调查结果为暴发/流行的事件有流行性腮腺炎、流行性感冒和风疹3个病种,主要发生在竹山县。从系统发出预警信号到填报异常信息卡的时间<24 h的占92.0%。结论阳性预测值很低,系统敏感性较高,建议适当调整预警系统参数设置,减轻县区处理预警信息的工作量。
Objective To analyze the status quo of automatic warning information on infectious diseases in Shiyan City and provide evidence for improving the management of automatic warning information system. Methods Epidemiological methods were used to analyze the early warning information of infectious diseases in Shiyan. Results A total of 4 822 warning signals were issued in the automatic warning system for infectious diseases in Shiyan from 2008 to 2012, with 26 outbreaks / epidemics and a positive predictive value of 0.54%. The field survey results showed that the outbreaks / epidemics were epidemic mumps, influenza and rubella three diseases, mainly in Zhushan County. From the system issued an early warning signal to fill in the abnormal information card time <24 h accounted for 92.0%. Conclusion The positive predictive value is very low and the sensitivity of the system is high. It is suggested that the pre-warning system parameters should be properly adjusted so as to reduce the workload of handling the early-warning information in the county.