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[目的]了解广州市气象因素对心血管事件发生的影响。[方法]采集2006年8月～2007年10月广州市每日气象因子数据(数据来自广东省气象局)以及同期广州市每日的心血管事件发生的资料(数据来自广州市急救医疗指挥中心,简称120系统),对其进行相关分析和逐步回归分析,建立相关预报方程,.通过预报方程预测未来广州心血管事件的发生。[结果]心血管事件的发生与当天的气温、平均气压、平均水汽压、平均露点温度、气温差相关(OR分别为-0.263、0.227、-0.223、-0.236、0.095);通过回归分析得出日心血管事件发病人数的回归方程(预测方程)为:Y=(19.120-0.198*日最低气温)*1.00008n(n为距离2006年8月1日的天数);对日心血管事件发病人数的回归方日程进行回代检验,以预报等级与实际等级相同的天数作为预报正确。预报等级与实际等级相差不超过一个等级的占82.4%(352/426)。[结论]广州市气象因子对心血管事件的发生有一定的影响,特别是气温。日心血管事件发病人数的回归方程对广州市心血管事件的发生有一定的预测作用。
[Objective] To understand the impact of Guangzhou meteorological factors on cardiovascular events. [Method] The daily meteorological data of Guangzhou (data from Guangdong Meteorological Bureau) from August 2006 to October 2007 and daily cardiovascular events in Guangzhou were collected (data from Guangzhou Emergency Medical Command Center , Referred to as the 120 system), its correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis, the establishment of the relevant forecasting equation, predicts the future occurrence of cardiovascular events in Guangzhou by the prediction equation. [Results] The incidence of cardiovascular events correlated with the temperature, mean pressure, mean vapor pressure, average dew point temperature and temperature difference on the day (OR = -0.263, 0.227, -0.223, -0.236, -0955, respectively) The regression equation (predicted equation) for the number of daily cardiovascular events is: Y = (19.120-0.198 * day minimum temperature) * 1.00008n (n is the number of days from August 1, 2006); the number of daily cardiovascular events Of the regression equation back to the test, the forecast level with the actual level of the same number of days as the forecast is correct. 82.4% (352/426) of the difference between the forecast level and the actual level does not exceed one level. [Conclusion] The meteorological factors in Guangzhou have a certain impact on the occurrence of cardiovascular events, especially the temperature. The regression equation of daily incidence of cardiovascular events has a certain predictive value for the occurrence of cardiovascular events in Guangzhou.