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干旱、雨涝是农业生态方面重要的水文气象灾害,科学地根据水文气象预报来选择种植作物品种,一直是农业管理者、生产者非常关心的问题,传统的决策方法是根据农业总体区划、作物种植习惯和耕作习惯确定的,具有一定的局限性。提出了基于气象灾害预报对错概率的作物种植类型决策新方法,综合考虑了农业气象预报的误报概率和作物适应性,克服了传统方法的不足。对绥棱农场某种植区20年的水文气象资料进行了分析,计算了旱涝预报与实况联合概率矩阵,推导出水文气象预报对错概率矩阵;根据作物品种在不同天气状况的产量,确定了决策失误损失矩阵。实证分析表明,所提决策方法可有效地减少因旱涝灾害给粮食产量带来的损失,对作物品种的选择具有很好的实用参考价值。
Drought and waterlogging are important hydrometeorological disasters in agroecology. Scientifically selecting crop varieties according to the hydrological and meteorological forecast has always been a major concern for agricultural managers and producers. The traditional method of decision-making is based on the general agricultural zoning, crop Planting habits and farming habits to determine, with some limitations. A new crop decision-making method based on the probability of meteorological disasters was put forward. The false alarm probability and crop adaptability of agricultural meteorological forecast were comprehensively considered, which overcomes the shortcomings of traditional methods. Hydrological and meteorological data of a plantation in Suileng Farm for 20 years were analyzed, and the droughts and floods prediction and the joint probability matrix were calculated and the probability-of-error matrix of hydrological and meteorological forecasts was deduced. According to the yield of crop varieties under different weather conditions, Decision Error Loss Matrix. Empirical analysis shows that the proposed method can effectively reduce the losses caused by drought and flood disasters to grain yield and has good practical reference value for the selection of crop varieties.