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中国的经济问题中有很多特殊性,不应照搬西方的标准来判定。天量的外汇储备、尚可推进的城镇化、刚刚启动的新一轮改革红利,这些都有利于化解中国经济成长的各种烦恼。目前中国经济正处在三期叠加的特殊转型阶段,前期助推中国经济发展的各项红利已基本释放完毕,社会长期积累的“公平负债”使得经济持续增长面临诸多挑战。但是,新一届政府领导人多次表示,中国经济将长期保持中高速的增长,不会出现硬着陆的状况。政府高层对中国经济发展的信心源于何处呢?笔者认为主要有三点:
There are many particularities in China’s economic problems and should not be judged by Western standards. The amount of foreign exchange reserves, the still-advancing urbanization and the new round of reform dividends that have just started are conducive to resolving various troubles in China’s economic growth. At present, China’s economy is in a special phase of transition in the three phases. The various dividends that have helped China’s economic development in the early stage have basically been released. The long-term social accumulation of “fair liabilities” has caused many challenges for sustained economic growth. However, the new government leader has repeatedly stated that China’s economy will maintain moderate-to-high growth in the long term without a hard landing. Where does the confidence of top government officials in China’s economic development come from? In my opinion, there are mainly three points: