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人口依赖率和储蓄消费之间关系的经验研究大约有半个世纪的历史,它一直是人口经济学和宏观经济学领域中一个较热的研究分支。本项研究引入家庭关系强度的概念和代理变量,并基于1982～2014年山东省时间序列数据进行实证分析,主要揭示人口依赖率、家庭关系强度和居民消费率之间的关系。其中家庭关系强度采用“(十万)人均的婚姻家庭继承纠纷的民事一审收案数”作为表征的代理变量。研究结果表明少儿依赖率、老年依赖率以及婚姻家庭继承类民事诉讼率的提高会增加居民消费率;少儿依赖率与婚姻家庭继承类民事诉讼率的交互效应、老年依赖率与婚姻家庭继承类民事诉讼率的交互效应、经济增长率以及城市化率对居民消费率的影响为负。
The empirical study of the relationship between population dependence and savings and consumption has been around for about half a century and has been a hot research branch in population economics and macroeconomics. This study introduces the concept of family-relationship intensity and proxy variables, and conducts an empirical analysis based on the time-series data of Shandong Province from 1982 to 2014, mainly revealing the relationship between population dependency rate, family relationship intensity and resident consumption rate. Among them, the intensity of family relations adopts the number of civil first instance cases of civil marriage and family inheritance disputes per capita as the proxy variable of representation. The results show that the dependency rate of children, dependency rate of the elderly and the improvement of civil litigation rate of marriage and family succession will increase the rate of household consumption; the interaction effect between children's dependency rate and the civil litigation rate of inheritance of marriage and family, the dependence rate of the elderly and the inheritance of marriage and family The interactive effects of litigation rates, economic growth rates and urbanization rates have a negative impact on household consumption rates.