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本文对23家机构投资者(包括12家中资、2家外资券商的研究机构和9家基金)2005 年四季度投资策略并进行了比较研究,似乎可以得出一些结论: (1)目前经济已经处于回落周期,经济增长质量在变好,06年的GDP的增长率将放 缓至8．5％左右,上市公司盈利增速开始放缓。 (2)在考虑了A股的含权价值后,A股市场与国际市场和H股市场相比,估值基本 合理;蓝筹股略有低估,很多非篮筹股票出现估值风险,市场有结构性调整的压力。2005 年四季度很难出现牛市行情。 (3)出于市场对宏观经济较为一致的看法,对行业的认识开始逐步趋同,一些新的 取得共识的行业可能显得较有投资机会,如公用事业、旅游、软件、电力等行业,而对 于机构共同不看好的煤炭应该注意投资风险。 (4)基于我国“十一五规划”提出来的发展思路,可考虑选择符合国家政策、符合 未来经济发展方向的投资主题:如对中国制造业的遴选要素从传统比较优势转向企业的 创新,包括技术创新和业务模式创新:通讯设备、电子元器件、软件、新材料等领域正 产生难能可贵的企业创新小巨人;关注新能源等。
This article on 23 institutional investors (including 12 Chinese-funded, two foreign-funded brokerage research institutions and nine funds) in the fourth quarter of 2005, investment strategies and conducted a comparative study, it seems that we can draw some conclusions: (1) the current economy has been In the down cycle, the quality of economic growth is getting better. The growth rate of GDP in 2006 will slow down to about 8.5%. The profit growth of listed companies will start to slow down. (2) After considering the weighted value of A shares, the A-share market is basically reasonable in valuation compared with the international market and the H-share market. The blue chip stocks are slightly undervalued. Many non-basket-raised stocks have a valuation risk and the market has a structure Sexual adjustment pressure. The fourth quarter of 2005 is difficult to appear bull market. (3) Due to the market consensus on macroeconomy, the understanding of the industry is gradually converging. Some new consensus-reached industries may appear to be more investment opportunities, such as utilities, tourism, software, electricity and other industries, Coal companies are not optimistic about the agency should pay attention to investment risks. (4) Based on the development ideas put forward in the 11th Five-year Plan of China, we can consider the investment theme in line with the national policy and in line with the future direction of economic development. For instance, if the selection factor of China’s manufacturing industry shifts from the traditional comparative advantage to the innovation of enterprises, Including technological innovations and business model innovations: innovative small giants such as telecommunications equipment, electronic components, software, and new materials are being produced in the field; attention is paid to new energy sources and so on.