论文部分内容阅读
人类活动被认为是黄河流域径流减少的主要原因。对于径流减少的两个主要影响因素:气候波动与土地覆被变化,究竟哪个是最主要的影响因素?为了回答这个问题,选择黄河中游的屈产河作为研究对象,分析屈产河大约30a的气候波动和土地覆被变化。建立和应用月水量平衡模型来模拟和研究气候波动和土地覆被变化对径流的影响,从而定量区分它们对径流变化的“贡献率”。结果表明,70年代径流深比60年代减少7.25%,其中由土地覆被变化引起的大约占3/4,气候波动引起的占1/4;80年代径流深比60年代减少46.43%,其中由土地覆被变化引起的大约占1/3,气候波动引起的占2/3。因此得出结论70年代土地覆被变化是径流减少的主要因素,而80年代气候波动是主要原因。
Human activities are considered as the main reason for the decrease of runoff in the Yellow River basin. For the purpose of answering this question, we choose the Qujiang River in the middle reaches of the Yellow River as the research object, and analyze the relationship between the Quy River and the Quaternary about 30 years Climate fluctuations and land cover changes. The monthly water balance model was established and applied to simulate and study the effects of climate fluctuations and land cover changes on runoff so as to quantitatively distinguish their contribution rates to runoff changes. The results show that the runoff in the 1970s was 7.25% less than that in the 1960s, accounting for about ¾ of that caused by land cover changes and ¼ of that caused by climate fluctuations. The runoff in the 1980s was 46.43% less than in the 1960s, of which About a third is caused by land cover changes and 2/3 due to climate fluctuations. Therefore, it is concluded that the change of land cover in the 1970s was the major factor in the decrease of runoff. However, the climate change in the 1980s was the main reason.