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尽管今年以来铜价整体呈震荡下跌走势,但目前铜价还在3美元/磅以上(2012年全球生产电解铜成本为2.15美元/磅),说明铜行业仍然处于暴利时代。笔者就其中的原因以及后市铜的行情将如何演绎谈谈自己的看法。目前铜市场的“怪现象”供应过剩和行业暴利并存。世界金属统计局9月18日公布报告称,2013年1~7月全球铜市供应过剩20万吨,2012年全年供应过剩23.6万吨。1~7月全球电解铜产量同比增加5.1%至1219万吨。中国产量增加53.7万吨,抵消了智利产量下滑9.9万吨及印度产量减少12万吨的影响。1~7月电解铜需求同比增加
Although the overall price of copper has fluctuated downwardly this year, the current price of copper is still above US $ 3 / lb (the cost of electrolytic copper produced in the world in 2012 was US $ 2.15 / lb), indicating that the copper industry is still in an era of huge profits. The author on the reasons and the market outlook copper will be how to interpret their own views. The current copper market “strange phenomenon ” excess supply and industry profits co-exist. According to a report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics on September 18, the global copper market supplied 200,000 tons of surplus steel from January to July 2013, with an excess of 236,000 tons for the full year of 2012. January to July global electrolytic copper production increased by 5.1% to 12.19 million tons. China’s production increased by 537,000 tons, offsetting a 99,000 tons decline in Chile and a 120,000 tons reduction in India’s output. January ~ July electrolytic copper demand increased compared to the same period