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目的利用网络规模叠加法(NSUM)估计哈尔滨市居民社交网络规模、暗娼人群规模及校正参数。方法采用分层随机抽样方法,在哈尔滨市开展社区居民和暗娼人群社交网络规模问卷调查,利用网络规模叠加法原理估计哈尔滨市居民社交网络规模、暗娼人群规模及校正参数。结果哈尔滨市居民社交网络规模原始值平均规模为271人,经标化与校正后,居民社交网络平均规模为267人,该市暗娼人群社交网络平均规模为65人。估计得到该市暗娼人群的规模约为24 116人(95%可信区间:22 910~25 322),约占该市15~49岁女性人口数的0.75%,计算得到该市暗娼人群规模校正参数为4.1。结论可采用网络规模叠加法通过居民社区调查,对艾滋病高危人群开展规模估计,但需对调查中的偏倚进行评估和调整。
Objective To estimate the scale of social network, the size of FSWs and the calibration parameters of residents in Harbin by NSUM. Methods A stratified random sampling method was used to investigate the social network scale of community residents and female sex workers in Harbin. The network scale superposition method was used to estimate the size of social network, the size of female sex workers and the calibration parameters of Harbin residents. Results The original scale of social network of residents in Harbin was 271 on average. After the standardization and calibration, the average size of residents’ social networks was 267, and the average size of the social workers in the city was 65. It is estimated that there are 24,116 FSWs in the city (95% confidence interval: 22,910 ~ 25,322), accounting for about 0.75% of the city’s 15-49-year-old female population. The size of FSWs in this city is calculated The parameter is 4.1. Conclusion The network size overlay method can be used to carry out the scale estimation of residents at high risk of AIDS through resident community survey. However, the bias in the survey needs to be assessed and adjusted.