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中国的文化产业仍有增长空间,前提是他们能够更准确地探知消费者需求的变化,尤其是在老龄化社会即将到来的今日。在1929至1933年美国经济大衰退期间,好莱坞影业的逆市增长也造成了“经济越衰退,娱乐越繁荣”的印象。对此,某投资银行高层人士认为,在宏观经济长期下滑的同时,向文化娱乐产业寄予过高期望,并不现实。娱乐产业在很大程度上受到规模效益的影响。电影、唱片、电视剧的投资总额固定下来以后,其收益的多少取决于观众的数量。与社会人口规模发生的正向关系使得人口数量与结构直接影响着文娱产业的未来趋势。当人口结构趋向老龄化时,文化内容的审美情趣和市场消费习惯将发生变化。在中国,为老年社会所准备的娱乐产品和服务并未得到很好地开发,而长期低生育率造成未来的人口下降趋势,也会影响到产业的人口规模效益。这意味着,当长期的低速增长到来时,文娱产业需要更精准地定位消费者群体,并考虑到年龄结构变化带
China’s cultural industries still have room for growth, provided they can more accurately detect changes in consumer demand, especially in the upcoming aging society. During the Great Recession of the United States from 1929 to 1933, the adverse market growth of Hollywood Pictures also caused the impression that “the more recession the economy is, the more entertainment is prosperous.” In response, a senior investment bank think that in the long-term macroeconomic decline, while placing too high expectations of the cultural and entertainment industries, is not realistic. The entertainment industry is largely influenced by economies of scale. After the total amount of investment in films, records, and TV dramas is fixed, the amount of revenue depends on the number of viewers. The positive relationship with the size of the social population makes the population size and structure directly affect the future trend of the entertainment industry. As the demographic structure tends to age, the aesthetic taste of cultural content and market spending habits will change. In China, the entertainment products and services prepared for the aged society have not been well developed, and the long-term low fertility rate will result in a declining population in the future, which will also affect the population scale benefits of the industry. This means that, as long-term, slow growth comes to an end, the entertainment industry needs to target consumers more precisely and take into account changes in age structure