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产量预测是农业、粮食、统计等部门的一项经常性工作,它不仅指导农业生产中积累,消费、分配,还关系到安排再生产。从目前预报方法思路来看,有回归统计模式,也有采用大气环流进行预测,以及用生育期气象条件作为预测依据,都得到了比较理想的效果,但是根据生物学意义预测产量,往往更符合实际。在产量大起大落的情况下,有时出现误差较大,这也是目前产量预报中的不足处。本文就有效积温差预测晚稻产量作些探讨。
Production forecasting is a recurrent work in agriculture, grain and statistics. It not only guides the accumulation, consumption and distribution in agricultural production, but also relates to the arrangement of reproduction. From the point of view of current forecasting methods, there are regression models, as well as atmospheric circulation forecasting, and using the meteorological conditions in the growing period as the basis for prediction, all of which have achieved satisfactory results. However, predicting output based on biological significance is more realistic . In the case of large fluctuations in output, sometimes larger errors, which is the current production forecast deficiencies. In this paper, effective production temperature difference prediction of late rice yield for some discussion.