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粘虫(Mythimna separata Walker)为暴食性害虫,是我国农作物的重要害虫之一。目前,关于粘虫的发生期预测,多属短期。我国东北是二代粘虫发生区,及早掌握一代成虫迁入期,准确发布预报,对指导适时防治,有着特别重要的现实意义。作者曾对一代粘虫发生区,越冬代成虫迁入期的长期预测模式进行一些探讨,在两年试报及1983年预报中,都得到满意的结果。实践证明,用前期气象因子建立长期预测模式,是一条简便的行之有效的模拟研制途径。因此在过去研究的基础上,用气象因子,以建立“最优”回归方程为目的,进一步对东北地区一代成虫迁入期的长期及中期预测模式,进行探讨。
Mythimna separata Walker is a gluttonous pest and is one of the important pests of crops in our country. At present, the prediction of occurrence of armyworm is mostly short-term. The second generation of Mythimna separata occurs in the northeast of our country. It is of particular importance to grasp the immigrant stage of the first generation as early as possible and release the forecast accurately to guide timely prevention and control. The author has made some discussions on the long-term prediction model of the occurrence of the era of Mythimna separata and the overwintering generation of adult worms. Both the two-year trial report and the 1983 forecast show satisfactory results. Practice has proved that the use of pre-meteorological factors to establish long-term prediction model is a simple and effective simulation of development. Therefore, on the basis of the previous studies, the meteorological factors and the establishment of the “optimal” regression equation were used to further investigate the long-term and medium-term prediction models of the immigrants of the first generation in Northeast China.