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“发展高技术,实现产业化”是我国的既定国策。高技术产业的发展为创业投资提供了发展的土壤,而创业投资也逐渐成为高技术产业增长的重要支撑。然而,创业投资对高技术产业的提升究竟有多大贡献,二者之间是否具有一定的相互关联,是否具有互为因果的关系,不能仅仅凭定性的分析方法,还需要一种定量化的方法来加以证明。本文运用计量经济学中的时间序列分析理论、Granger因果关系检验法和相关分析等原理,从定量的角度,通过实际数据,建立经济数学模型,分析并论证了创业投资和高技术产业的相关关系、因果关系,并得出结论创业投资与高技术产业存在着较高的相关度,但是有一定的滞后性;高技术产业的发展是推动创业投资业发展的重要原因,而且其变化要发生在创业投资业之前,反过来则不成立。
“Developing high technology and realizing industrialization ” is our country’s established national policy. The development of high-tech industry has provided the soil for venture capital investment, and venture capital has gradually become an important support for the growth of high-tech industries. However, how much contribution a VC makes to the promotion of high-tech industries and whether there is some correlation between them and whether they have a causal relationship with each other should not only be based on qualitative analysis but also need a quantitative method To prove it. Based on the theory of time series analysis in econometrics, Granger causality test and correlation analysis, this essay establishes the mathematical model of economy from the quantitative point of view through actual data, and analyzes and demonstrates the relationship between venture capital and high-tech industries , Causality and concluded that there is a high correlation between venture capital and high-tech industries, but there is a certain lag; the development of high-tech industries is to promote the development of venture capital industry is an important reason, and its changes occur in Before the venture capital industry, the reverse is not valid.