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随着需求下滑风险逐步得到释放,水泥行业景气度仍处于向下阶段。但大型水泥企业通过停窑、提价等方式,有望增加盈利。考虑到政策支持下资金到位情况好转,基建重启进程加快,房地产微调政策向良好方向发展,水利建设加快等因素,预计下半年水泥需求有望回暖。目前水泥行业估值处于历史低位,政策持续微调提供估值修复机会,资本市场先于基本面启动,维持行业“看好”评级。投资策略:建议紧盯需求端,如基建重启的进程及力度、房地产运行指标。(1)基建:目前铁路、公路基建投资
With the gradual release of the risk of falling demand, the cement industry boom is still in the downward stage. However, large-scale cement enterprises by stopping the kiln, price increases, etc., is expected to increase profitability. Taking into account the policy support under the circumstances of capital improvement, the process of restarting infrastructure, real estate fine-tuning policy to a good direction, accelerate the construction of water conservancy and other factors, is expected in the second half cement demand is expected to pick up. At present, the valuation of the cement industry is at historically low level. Policies continue to be fine-tuned to provide opportunities for valuation and remediation. The capital market starts ahead of the fundamentals and maintains a “promising” rating for the industry. Investment Strategy: It is recommended to focus on the demand side, such as infrastructure restart process and intensity of real estate indicators. (1) Infrastructure: The current railway, highway infrastructure investment