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利用路径分析模型分析产业结构、能源消费结构、能源-劳动力配置、劳动生产率等因素对能源强度影响,计算了能源强度的直接效应和间接效应。分析表明:提高第二、三产业劳动生产率既可直接降低能源强度又可间接通过能源-劳动力配置来降低能源强度;提高第三产业结构既可直接降低能源强度又可间接通过提高第二、三产业劳动生产率来降低能源强度;降低能源-劳动力配置有助于降低能源强度;提高天然气和电力的比重,降低煤炭和油料的比重将降低能源强度。因此,降低能源强度在于提高第二、三产业劳动生产率。
The path analysis model is used to analyze the impact of industrial structure, energy consumption structure, energy-labor allocation, labor productivity and other factors on energy intensity, and the direct and indirect effects of energy intensity are calculated. The analysis shows that increasing the labor productivity of the second and third industries can directly reduce the energy intensity and indirectly reduce the energy intensity through the energy and labor allocation. Increasing the tertiary industry structure can not only directly reduce the energy intensity, but also indirectly through raising the second and third industries’ Industrial labor productivity to reduce energy intensity; reduce energy - labor allocation can help reduce energy intensity; increase the proportion of natural gas and electricity, reduce the proportion of coal and oil will reduce energy intensity. Therefore, reducing energy intensity is to improve labor productivity in the second and third industries.