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本文根据锥形模膛镦锻变形特点，分析了大长径比坯料镦锻变形的三个过程，导出了这些过程中变形瞬态的数学模型，提出了在平面弯曲和空间螺旋弯曲情况下，能进行稳定镦锻的原始坯料长径比ψ０，并绘出了相应的ψ－φ临界曲线，所得出的三条镦锻限制曲线，为设计模具提供了理论依据。结合实验研究，提出了设计大长径比坯料镦锻模膛的工艺参数。利用本文的结果，设计的抽油杆锻模，在生产中取得了满意的效果。
In this paper, according to the deformation characteristics of tapered die upsetting, three processes of upsetting forging of large aspect ratio blanks are analyzed, and the mathematical models of deformation transients in these processes are derived. In the case of plane bending and space helical bending, The aspect ratio ψ0 of the original billet can be stable upsetting, and the corresponding ψ-φ critical curves are plotted. The three upsetting limit curves obtained provide the theoretical basis for the design of the mold. Combined with the experimental research, the process parameters for designing upsetting die for large aspect ratio blanks are proposed. The results of this paper, the design of the sucker rod forging, in the production has achieved satisfactory results.