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对于我国经济周期的“微波化”趋势,本文探讨了市场化水平、所有制结构和经济周期之间的关系。我们认为,作为体制性波动和市场性波动的替代指标,国有企业波动幅度要大于民营企业波动幅度,而在不同市场化水平下,所有制结构与经济周期存在着非线性关系。进一步,基于1985—2009年的相关数据,本文利用HP滤波法和面板门槛模型分别对以上命题进行了实证检验,估计结果很好地证明了以上结论。这就意味着:稳步的推进市场化改革,深化国有企业改革,不仅有利于长期、持续的经济增长,同时还有利于实现“高位收敛”。
As to the trend of “microwaveization” in China’s economic cycle, this article explores the relationship between marketization level, ownership structure and business cycle. In our opinion, as an alternative indicator of systemic volatility and market volatility, the volatility of state-owned enterprises is greater than that of private-owned enterprises. Under different levels of marketization, there is a nonlinear relationship between the ownership structure and the economic cycle. Further, based on the relevant data from 1985 to 2009, this paper empirically tests the above propositions by using the HP filter method and the panel threshold model, and the estimation results well prove the above conclusions. This means that: Steady progress in market-oriented reforms and deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises are not only conducive to long-term and sustained economic growth, but are also conducive to achieving “high convergence.”