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本文选取我国1985—2009年的数据,在协整检验和因果关系检验的基础上,建立了农业保险需求的变参数模型。结果表明,农民人均纯收入、农业GDP是农业保险需求的原因;成灾面积占受灾面积的比重和农业保险赔付率不是农业保险需求的原因。农业GDP对农业保险需求有明显的拉动作用,农民人均纯收入对农业保险需求影响的波动范围比较大,并在此基础上提出扩大农业保险需求的建议。
This article selects the data of our country from 1985 to 2009, establishes the variable parameter model of agricultural insurance demand on the basis of cointegration test and causality test. The results show that the per capita net income of farmers and agricultural GDP are the reasons for the demand for agricultural insurance. The proportion of disaster-affected area to the affected area and the rate of agricultural insurance loss are not the reasons for the demand for agricultural insurance. Agricultural GDP has a significant pulling effect on agricultural insurance demand. The range of fluctuations in the impact of per capita net income of farmers on agricultural insurance demand is relatively large. On this basis, suggestions are made to expand the agricultural insurance demand.