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Taking the evolution process of TFT-LCD industry as an example,this paper applied history-friendly model to analyze the effect of technology innovation and learning,and market demand growth and fluctuation on the evolution of production organization pattern in strategic emerging industries.Our research indicates that:(1) when market demand maintains linear growth,continuous technology innovation capabilities of vertically integrated enterprises in leading position of an industry are the key factor in deciding whether dominant production organization pattern will shift from vertical integration to specialization;(2) when market demand is in cyclical fluctuation,the technology learning capabilities of specialized enterprises in catch-up position are the key factor in deciding whether dominant production organization pattern will shift from vertical integration to specialization;(3) when market demand growth is under cyclical fluctuation,if the relative gap between technology innovation capabilities of vertically integrated enterprises and technology learning capabilities of specialized enterprises remains constant,the phase when industry cycle moves from trough to plateau is the best time window for specialized enterprises to catch up with and overtake vertically integrated enterprises.Hence,policy design supporting the development of strategic emerging industries should give full consideration to factors like market demand environment and technology innovation and learning capabilities of domestic enterprises.
Taking the evolution process of TFT-LCD industry as an example, this paper applied history-friendly model to analyze the effect of technology innovation and learning, and market demand growth and fluctuation on the evolution of production organization pattern in strategic emerging industries. Our research indicates that: (1) when market demand maintains linear growth, continuous technology innovation capabilities of vertically integrated enterprises in leading position of an industry are the key factor in deciding whether dominant production organization pattern will shift from vertical integration to specialization; (2) when market demand is in cyclical fluctuation, the technology learning capabilities of specialized enterprises in catch-up position are the key factor in deciding whether dominant production organization pattern will shift from vertical integration to specialization; (3) when market demand growth is under cyclical fluctuation, if the relative gap between technology innovation c apabilities of vertically integrated enterprises and technology learning capabilities of specialized enterprises remains constant, the phase when industry cycle moves from trough to plateau is the best time window for specialized enterprises to catch up with and overtake vertically integrated enterprises.ence, policy design supporting the development of strategic emerging industries should give full consideration to factors like market demand environment and technology innovation and learning capabilities of domestic enterprises.